Electricity sector

Australia is in the middle of transformative change in the electricity sector, 
accelerating the transition from fossil to renewable fuels. Transformation of the 
electricity sector is critical to drive transition in other sectors and decarbonise 

the broader economy. 

CSIRO’sRapid Decarbonisation Scenario in its Pathway toNet Zero Emissions report assumes that 85% of Australia’s 
coal fired generation capacity will close by 2030. 

That means that by 2030, renewable energy will need 
to make up more than 90% of the power mix by 
2030 – tripling the share of electricity needs met by 
renewable sources. 

To reach that target, almost all new capacity installed 
in the next decade would need to come from wind, 
solar and hydropower, supported by increased 
storage capacity. 

Under CSIRO’s Rapid Decarbonisation scenario:

•Solar capacity is projected to grow four-fold and its 
share of electricity supplied to triple to over 30% 
by 2030.
•Wind capacity is projected to grow more than five-fold 
and the share of electricity supplied more than 
four-fold to 45% by 2030.
•Together with storage through pumped hydro and 
batteries, solar and wind make up almost 85% of 
electricity total by 2030.
To enable a shift to solar and wind as predominant electricity 
sources, a large investment in energy storage and electricity 
infrastructure is projected.

For more information, see infographic below 
and section 3.1 of the report Pathways to Net 
Zero Emissions – An Australian Perspective 
on Rapid Decarbonisation.

csiro.au/rapiddecarbonisation


Electricity sector

NEM generation 
has almost tripled 
(compared to 2020 
levels) and is more 
than 99% renewable2050
2040More than 5x as many 
rooftop PV solar 
panels in the NEM 
(compared to 2020)
2035No more coal 
powergeneration
2030

Fossil fuel-based 
emissions less than 
10% of NEM total

Wind and solar 
generation almost 
85% of NEM total

Almost 4x as many 
rooftop PV solar 
panels in the NEM 
(compared to 2020) 

2020Fossil-fuel based 
generation more than 
70% of NEM total, 
whereas wind and solar 
generation almost 20%
NEM: National Electricity Market

B&M | 23-00306