Heavy industry

Australia’s population is projected to reach 33 million by 2050. This will drive 
construction of more infrastructure, alongside what is required to support the 

energy transition.

Steel, cement and aluminium are key industries in 
infrastructure development. They are also the highest 
emitting industry sectors in Australia. They also face 
substantial obstacles to achieving full decarbonisationwith current technologies, but there are ways they can 
reduce or abate emissions. 

•Under CSIRO’s Rapid Decarbonisation scenario,
demand for cement production is projected to 
increase by more than a quarter (27%) by 2050 relative 
to 2020 levels. This demand is from the electricity 
sector (building wind power, hydropower and new 
electricity infrastructure), construction (for built 
environment and transport) and mining. 
The cement industry can reduce emissions through a 
mix of fuel switching, using biofuels and technologies 
that are currently in early demonstration or prototype 
phase (such as hydrogen and Carbon Capture 
Utilisation and Storage), which will require significant 
investment. The cement sector is not projected to 
achieve net zero by 2050, in part because of carbon 
dioxide emissions from clinker production, and will 
need to draw on negative emissions to achieve net 
zeroobjectives.

Australia’s iron ore (used to make steel) and bauxite 
(used to make aluminium) sectors are projected to 
continue to grow as key metals supporting transition 
(iron ore by nearly 70% and bauxite by nearly 50%). 
Mining activities will decarbonise relatively rapidly 
through electrification with some use of hydrogen. 

Mineral processing emissions reduction trajectories are 
more complex. 

•Global demand for batteries, solar PV panels and wind – 
all of which use aluminium to some degree – is expected 
to increase. Australia has an opportunity to leverage its 
renewable energy resources to produce aluminium at lower 
emissions intensity than international competitors. 
The technical challenge to abate high temperature heating 
and process emissions for the aluminium sector should 
not be underestimated. Significant investment in research, 
development and pilots along with industry collaborationwill be needed to commercialise decarbonisation measures.

•Under CSIRO’s Rapid Decarbonisation scenario, electrificationand decarbonisation of electricity enable significantemissions reduction in iron ore processing and smelting. 
Even with direct reduction and electric arc furnaces, green 
hydrogen will likely be part of the industry’s critical path 
todecarbonisation.
As demand for green steel grows and value chain emissions 
become more important, low emissions producers are 
likely to find it easier to obtain finance, may be able to 
attract a green premium for their products, and will avoid 
carbon penalties.

Companies in hard-to-abate sectors will be relying on Carbon 
Capture Utilisation and Storage, hydrogen, or offsets to 
prolong their longevity in a low carbon future. Investment in 
research, pilots and demonstration projects will play a critical 
part in enabling these technologies to be commercialised 
at scale.

For more information, see infographic below 
and section 3.4 of the report Pathwaysto Net Zero Emissions – An Australian 
Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation.

csiro.au/rapiddecarbonisation


Heavy industry

2050

Clinker comprises around 
60% of cement production

Direct reduced iron (via hydrogen) 
comprises more than half of steel 
smelting productionIn alumunia refining, energy 
from natural gas falls below a 
third whilst electricity increasesto more than half
Diesel use is eliminated in 

2040s

bauxite and iron ore mining

CO2 capture gains traction 

in cement production

Emissions intensity decreases 
by 22% in steel production 
(compared to 2020)
Hydrogen is partially used 
in steel refining 
Anode technology gains some 
use in aluminium smelting
2030s

Recarbonationgains recognition 
in concrete industry

Recompression sees a move 
away from natural gas in 
alumina refining
2020In bauxite and iron ore mining, 
more than two thirds fuel use 
is electricity or biofuelCementSteel productionAluminiumAluminaIron ore and bauxiteClinker comprises 84% 
of cement productionIn bauxite and iron ore mining, 
more than half fuel use is diesel

In alumina refining, more 
than two thirds fuel use 
is natural gas
B&M | 23-00306