Transport

Transport is Australia’s third largest source of emissions – 19% in 2021. Road 
transport is the most significant contributor in the transport sector, with the 
biggest opportunity for near-term decarbonisation from light vehicles.

CSIRO’sRapid Decarbonisation scenario assumes that sales of 
conventional cars (ICE – internal combustion engine – vehicles) 
end by 2035. 

While electric vehicles (EVs) become cheaper, more charging 
infrastructure and rooftop solar for home charging all 
accelerate EV uptake. By 2040, 73% of cars and light 
commercial vehicles on the road are electric powered.

Under the CSIRO scenario, decarbonisation of long distance 
and heavy transport accelerates through 2030–2040. As much 
as 56% of long-haul road transport is electrified by 2050 and 
the remainder uses low- or zero-emissions hydrogen. 

Other commercial and passenger transport modes (rail, 
shipping and aviation) all feature expensive, long-lived 
assets, which are challenging to decarbonise requiring more 
innovation. Technologies in early stages of adoption inAustralia will need to be in mainstream use by the 2030s.

The report’s scenario projects that shipping begins to 
decarbonise in the 2040s as hydrogen carriers and advanced 
biofuels become commercialised. Similarly, air transport begins 
to decarbonise with a move towards the use of biofuels. 

For more information, see infographic below 
and section 3.3 of the report Pathwaysto Net Zero Emissions – An Australian 
Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation.

csiro.au/rapiddecarbonisation


Transport


2040s

Shipping industry hasstarted to decarbonise via 
hydrogen/biofuelsAir transport has begun to 
decarbonise viabiofuels
EVs make up 73% of light 
vehicles ontheroad

ShippingAir transportHeavy vehiclesPassenger and light 

commercial vehicles

2045All heavy road transport 
is a mix of electric 
and hydrogenMore than 90% of road 
vehicles are electric
2035Sales of new petrol and 
diesel vehicles end
2020

The transport sector is 
Australia’s 3rd largest 
emitter, making up 19%

Australia trails other 
countries in fuel 
efficiency standards

EVs make up 2% of newcarsales

2050

Shipping transport emissionsintensity is less than 
10% of2020Air transport emissions 
intensity is less than 
10% of 2020
2030s

EVs make up 23% of passengerand light commercial 
vehicles onthe road

EVs reach cost parity 
with new internal 
combustion vehicles

EVs make up more than 
half of new car sales

Pathways to Net Zero Emissions – An Australian Perspective on Rapid Decarbonisation

B&M | 23-00306