Ag2050 
Scenarios Report 

Executive summary

February 2024



Authorship

This report was lead authored (in alphabetical order) by 
Philippa Clegg, Micheala Kuen, Kate McMahon, Yasmin 
Morgan, Rohini Poonyth and Katherine Wynn with input 
from over 100 participants across different organisations 
from government, industry, and research leaders. 

CSIRO Futures

At CSIRO Futures, we bring together science, technology, 
and economics to help you develop transformative 
strategies that tackle your biggest challenges. As the 
strategic and economic advisory arm of Australia’s 
national science agency, we are uniquely positioned 
to transform complexity into clarity, uncertainty 
into opportunity, and insights into action.

CSIRO Agriculture and Food 

CSIRO’s work in agriculture and food is solving the greatest 
challenges through innovative science and technology 
to build a profitable, productive, trusted, and sustainable 
agrifood and fibre sector for the future. Working with 
CSIRO provides access to world-class multidisciplinary 
science, technology and facilities, relevant IP and global 
networks across the value chain (from gene to the plate). 
Our people and partnerships span Australia and 25 
countries, fostering a shared vision to create measurable 
economic, environmental and social impact and delivering 
new pathways and new technologies for the future.

Accessibility

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wherever possible. If you are having difficulties with 
accessing this document, please contact csiro.au/contact

Acknowledgement

CSIRO acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the 
land, sea, and waters, of the area that we live and 
work on across Australia. We acknowledge their 
continuing connection to their culture, and we pay 
our respects to their Elders, past and present.

The project team is grateful to the many stakeholders 
who generously gave their time to provide input to this 
project through consultations, workshops, reviews, and 
feedback. We thank the members of the project’s Steering 
Committee including representatives from the Australian 
Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and 
Forestry, Australian Farming Institute and CSIRO. 

Project Partnership

The Ag2050 Scenarios Report project was led by CSIRO 
with financial and in-kind support from the Australian 
Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries 
and Forestry. CSIRO would like to acknowledge the 
contributions of DAFF as advocates of co-design and 
connecting with industry to ensure their involvement and 
for bringing policy insights to the co-design process.

Copyright

© Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research 
Organisation 2024. To the extent permitted by law, all 
rights are reserved, and no part of this publication covered 
by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or 
by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO.

This document is a draft for EvokeAg 2024 and is subject 
to change.



Executive summary

The Ag2050 Scenarios Report explores a range of significant trends, risks and 
opportunities to identify key shifts and actions needed to support Australian farming 
systems into the future. This report aims to motivate discussions and actions around 
plausible futures and seeks to answer the question: what does a productive, resilient 
and sustainable future look like for Australian farming systems by 2050? 

Why agriculture? 

As of early 2024, agriculture in Australia has seen several 
years of high yield and profitability through continuous 
adaptation and leading innovation. However, there are 
several key threats to farm productivity, resilience, and 
sustainability that are already impacting farming systems, 
fisheries and forestry. These growing threats include 
climate change, emissions reduction targets, supply 
chain disruptions, workforce access, changing consumer 
preferences and market access, and innovation timelines.

Why now? 

The last two decades have shown long-term reductions 
in farm profit, with projections estimating that these 
growing threats could cause profitability decline in some 
areas by up to 50% by 2050.1 Australian agriculture has 
an active innovation system focussed mainly on short to 
medium-term deliverables (5–10 years) and commodity 
groups within existing farming systems. Australia will need 
to accelerate the transformation of its current farming 
systems to respond to these complex and whole‑of‑sector 
challenges and deliver against the sustainability, 
productivity and profitability needs of 2050. As such, there 
is a need for whole-of-system planning that provides the 
agricultural innovation system with achievable stepping 
stones towards long-term transformative system change.

Why future scenarios? 

The goal of this report is to motivate discussions between 
industry, researchers and policy makers on the strategy 
and coordination needed for the Australian agriculture 
innovation system to productively address cross-sectoral 
challenges and opportunities. By exploring four plausible, 
alternative futures for Australian farming, this report 
aims to expand the scope and urgency of collaborative 
and whole-of-sector strategic thinking for decision 
makers at all levels across the agriculture sector.

This work combines research by CSIRO and input 
from leaders and organisations across the Australian 
agriculture industry, research and government sectors 
to develop a set of four plausible and evidence‑based 
scenarios for 2050. It was developed through a 
highly collaborative approach over 6 months that 
combined input from over 100 participants across 
54 organisations in a co-design workshop series.

1 Hughes N, Gooday P (2021) Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms. ABARES, DAFF. <https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/
search/asset/1032401/0> (accessed 31 January 2024).



How to read this report 

Immerse yourself in the four contrasting future scenarios below. These scenarios are 
evidence‑based and plausible explorations of what Australian farming systems could look 
like by 2050. While some may have more desirable elements than others, it is important to 
note that there is no one preferred future scenario and every scenario presents trade-offs. 

What is possible for Australian farming 
if the agriculture innovation system 
achieves its full potential?

Scenario 1 – Regional Ag capitals

Scenario 2 – Landscape stewardship 

What can be achieved with 
incremental innovation and 
proactive climate adaptation? 

Scenario 3 – Climate survival

What if agriculture fails to effectively 
respond to the challenges and needs 
of 2050?

Scenario 4 – System decline

Each scenario contains a set of key signposts. 
Signposts are the unique trends, events or signals 
that could indicate the sector is on a pathway 
to the future described in the scenarios.

Next, explore the five fundamental shifts 
Australia needs to make to identify and pursue 
the future it wants for its farming systems. 

Five shifts: climate adaptation, land and water, 
industry, regions and whole‑of-system change were 
developed drawing on insights from the co-design 
workshops and CSIRO’s research. A set of action areas 
were defined for each fundamental shift. These action 
areas are not exhaustive, but help to articulate the 
initial changes, assumptions testing, and initiatives 
required. Ultimately, achieving the most optimistic 
future is plausible for Australian agriculture. However, 
it will require significant effort, collaboration and 
action across the public and private sectors. 

Methodology

Through a rigorous literature review and 
extensive consultation with stakeholders, 
14 drivers of change were identified. These drivers 
will shape the direction and speed of change 
across Australian farming systems to 2050. 
For each driver, two contrasting and alternative 
outcomes were developed. In a series of 
co‑design workshops, these driver outcomes 
were logically grouped to form the foundation 
of the four future scenarios in this report.

Over the next few years, the CSIRO Ag2050 program 
will continue to iterate these initial future scenarios 
through modelling and consultation to inform 
the policy and R&D actions required by industry 
and government to facilitate a preferable future.

It is important to note that the four future 
scenarios included in this report cover a wide 
range of plausible outcomes, however they are not 
mutually exclusive, nor exhaustive of the future 
possibilities. Additionally, while these scenarios will 
have implications across broader agrifood value 
chains, the scope of this report is pre-farm gate. 



Regional Ag capitals

Large multinational corporations have 
consolidated and seamlessly integrated 
much of Australia’s agriculture 
value chains. Leveraging transformative 
technologies, increased levels of 
productivity have been unlocked. 
New workforce opportunities have 
emerged, concentrated in a select few 
regional cities where multiple sectors 
are experiencing growth. 

How do we know we 
are heading here?

↑industry 
investment in novel 
climate adaptation strategies 

↑ industry-led collaboration 
and R&D investments

↑ rates 
of industry and supply 
chain consolidation

↑
investment 
in novel food 
and fibre production

↑
concentration 
of investment 
in select regional centres.

What does the agriculture 
sector look like in 2050?

Increasing yields and 
productivity gains

Food and fibre focus 
through new and intensified 
production systems

Decreasing emission 
intensity and plateaued 
absolute emissions

Improvements 
to the health of 
ecosystem services 

Skilled and diverse 
workforce in select 
growing regional cities

Step-change 
investment and uptake 
of disruptive agritech



Landscape stewardship

Using the land to support the energy 
transition through carbon capture and 
the restoration of the environment is a 
national priority. Farming systems are 
resilient and productive as producers 
have taken advantage of a range of 
diverse income streams, blurring the 
lines between farming, biodiversity, 
carbon sequestration, and energy 
and fuel production. 

How do we know we 
are heading here?

↑
investment 
in novel climate 
adaptation strategies

↑
R&
D investments across 
industries and sectors

↑
strength 
of governance and 
guidance across land uses

↑
application 
of novel cross-sector 
and diversified business models

→growth 
in food and 
fibre production.

What does the agriculture 
sector look like in 2050?

Increasing productivity 
gains and resilience

Diversified into 
innovative new market 
opportunities

Decreasing absolute 
emissions and increasing 
carbon sequestration

Active improvement 
to biodiversity and 
ecosystem services

Skilled and diverse 
workforce attracted 
to the sector

Step-change investment 
and uptake of disruptive 
agritech



Climate survival

Without transformative change, the 
agriculture sector is forced to focus 
on surviving rather than thriving. 
Producers relocate, and incrementally 
adapt and diversify their farming 
systems to offset the impacts of climate 
change. However, they remain uncertain 
about the long-term future viability of 
their businesses.

How do we know we 
are heading here?

↑ 
adoption in no-regrets climate 
change adaptation strategies

→ agriculture R&D 
investments

↑ application of diverse land 
management practices

↓ collaboration between 
industry and government

↓ trust in Australian 
agriculture brand.

What does the agriculture 
sector look like in 2050?

Plateauing productivity 
and efficiency gains

Diversified land 
management practices 
and products

Some reduction in emissions 
intensities while lagging 
national net zero targets

Slow deterioration of 
biological biodiversity 
and ecosystem services

Some talent 
attraction 
and retention

Incremental investment 
and uptake of low-risk 
technologies



System decline

The Australian agriculture sector has 
reached a tipping point. Delayed and 
fragmented decision‑making has 
left producers facing the economic 
and environmental consequences 
of extreme weather events and 
biosecurity outbreaks. With only 
incremental advances in agritech, 
many farm businesses are struggling 
to maintain profit.

How do we know we 
are heading here?

↓ collaboration on climate 
change adaptation strategies 

↑ 
short-term and reactionary 
focus of R&D system 

↑ 
on-farm 
production intensity

↑ rates 
of 
biodiversity loss

↑ regional 
marginalisation. 

What does the agriculture 
sector look like in 2050?

Declining yields and 
productivity gains

Food and fibre focus with 
traditional intensified 
production systems

Lagging reduction 
in emission intensities 
and failing emissions 
reduction targets

Declining biodiversity 
and ecosystem 
services health

Shrinking workforce and 
increasing number of 
farmers exiting the sector

Incremental investment 
and uptake of low-risk 
technologies



Considerations for policy 
and R&D actions

How Australia responds to trends and challenges 
will determine, in large part, its future outcomes. 
The four future scenarios describe plausible alternative 
futures for Australian agriculture each with benefits 
and challenges. This section outlines five initial shifts 
that Australian agriculture will need to make to 
identify the future it wants for its farming systems. 

The shifts listed below do not offer all the solutions. 
Instead they present the types of changes, assumptions 
tests, and initiatives required. They draw on the insights 
developed during the co-design workshops and CSIRO’s 
research and reflect existing aspirations for Australian 
agriculture. Significant effort and actions are required 
from Australia’s agriculture innovation system to turn these 
aspirations into strong long-term sector plans for achieving 
the more desirable future outcomes and avoiding the less 
desirable ones for Australian farming systems by 2050.

Figure 1. Recommended areas for policy and R&D

Whole-of-system

A whole-of-system shift will 
mean the agricultural system has 
the planning and investment to 
achieve step changes towards 
long-term transformation. 

Renew strategy guidelines – build 
on available strategic planning 
and forsighting tools, such as the 
future scenarios contained in this 
report, to enable industry, research 
organisations and government 
to develop effective strategy and 
standard evaluation frameworks 
in response to transformational 
and cross-commodity priorities. 

Restructure the agriculture 
R&D system – identify, evaluate 
and implement the strategy, 
structures, interactions, funding 
models, roles and responsibilities 
across Australian agriculture 
innovation needed for effective 
responses to cross-sector 
challenges and opportunities. 

Strengthen relationships and 
dialogue with Aboriginal and 
Torres Strait Islander partners 
– incorporate Indigenous led 
co-design and research into the 
development of opportunities 
and re-engage with traditional 
methods to advance sustainable 
farming practices. 

Climate adaptation

A climate adaptation shift will 
support Australian food and 
fibre production to pursue 
growth in profitability and 
productivity within the context 
of a changing climate. 

Increase research into climate 
change impacts – understand and 
forecast the impacts of climate 
change and offset strategies on 
ecosystem services and agriculture 
production at a regional level.

Increase research on adaptation 
approaches – identify adaptation 
approaches through continued 
research and strengthening 
international cross-collaboration.

Test for likely success of 
adaptation activities – test and 
demonstrate that adaptation 
strategies are adequate measures 
under a variety of global 
conditions, what social and 
policy measures are needed in 
regions, and how to monitor 
adaption action in the sector.

Land and seas

A land and sea shift will create 
a profitable and sustainable 
mix of food, fibre, and energy 
production and provide 
opportunities in carbon markets.

Improve understanding of on‑farm 
emissions reduction including 
technology adoption challenges 
and incentives – model trade‑offs 
between emission reduction 
and productivity under different 
global settings, incentivise the 
adoption of emission reduction 
through solving for process 
and technology challenges.

Model further land and sea use 
options and impacts – models 
to optimise alternative land and 
sea uses in regions, maps and 
tracking of land and sea use 
changes, monitoring impact on 
nearby ecosystems, and identifying 
repurposing on non-arable land.

Deepen understanding of carbon 
sequestration and ecosystem 
services opportunities – identity 
incentives for long-term sustainable 
practises, carbon sequestration 
opportunities, and in new 
technologies such as biotech and 
synthetic ecosystem services.

Industry

An industry shift will enable 
a productive and resilient 
agricultural sector and economy 
and provide new opportunities 
for exports and income streams. 

Build support for skills and human 
capital – identify and communicate 
the skills and jobs required in the 
future, barriers and incentives to 
education and career pathways in 
regions, potential trade-offs and 
co-benefits of automation, and 
establish strategic partnerships 
to build education and talent 
pipelines for regional locations. 

Broaden Australia’s agriculture 
export focus – model the 
impacts of consolidation and 
diversification on exports, 
design policies that balance 
IP protection with knowledge 
sharing and collaboration, 
promote Australian sustainability 
and biosecurity credentials that 
can be evidenced by producers 
with minimal cost and effort. 

Establish support from finance 
and diversified income streams 
– understand the settings needed 
from finance and insurance 
industries to support farm viability 
and resilience under various climate 
change and geopolitical scenarios. 

Regions

A regional shift will enable 
well-connected and vibrant 
regional communities that offer 
quality jobs, lifestyle amenities, 
education, and other services. 

Target investment in infrastructure 
– map and assess regional 
centres to identify potential for 
growth and investment from 
agriculture and other sectors, 
to support other centres that are 
at risk of marginalisation and 
find new ways to connect and 
engage city-based communities 
better with agriculture. 

Leverage mixed land use 
opportunities – harness land use 
mixes that leverage the energy 
transition and allow for more 
diverse income streams and quality 
jobs in regional areas, adopting 
relevant best practice from 
overseas around good planning 
and investment decisions. 

Productive, resilient 
and sustainable 
farming systems 
in 2050

Ultimately, achieving the most optimistic future 
is plausible if significant action is taken by 
Australian agriculture. This will require long-term 
strategic planning across the fundamental shifts: 
climate adaptation, land and seas, industry, and regions. 

The expertise, experience and energy needed to 
achieve the more positive outcomes described in 
this report extend beyond any single organisation. 
Effective and urgent collaborative effort is needed 
from both public and private sector organisations. 

Over the next few years, the Ag2050 program will 
continue to iterate these initial future scenarios through 
modelling and consultation to inform the policy and 
research and development (R&D) actions required by 
industry and government to facilitate a preferable future.



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CSIRO is solving the greatest 
challenges through innovative 
science and technology.

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For further information

CSIRO Futures

Katherine Wynn
katherine.wynn@csiro.au


Contact us

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