Climate-Futures-Web-Tool

[Music plays and text appears with CSIRO logo:  Climate Futures]

Narrator:  Climate Futures from CSIRO is a decision support tool that uses the predictive power of climate models to assist in managing future climate risks.

[Image changes to show a computerised image of a spinning globe]

While there is consensus among climate models that the global climate will change, projections may differ on the rate, or in some cases direction of the change.

[Image changes to show an animation and text appears:  2060]

For example, changes in temperature in 2060.

[Text appears on screen:  2060]

[Image changes to show a graph of temperatures and text appears:  Expected Temperature Change by 2060]

A survey of model projections for a region in Australia gives a range of temperature changes with some clustering.  For temperature, all models show an increase.

[Image changes to show a graph of rainfall and text appears:  Expected Rainfall change by 2060]

Rainfall projections from the same models may show increases, as well as decreases.

[Image changes to show both temperature and rainfall graphs side by side]

In this simplified example these two plots give no clear guidance.

[Image changes to show a plotted graph]

[Image changes to show a table and text appears:  Climate Futures]

Climate Futures presents the same data in a different way.  This table shows combined changes in temperature and rainfall for each model.

[Text appears on table:  Maximum consensus]

This makes it clear where models agree, highlighting the changes where there is greatest consensus, as well as future climate scenarios that might represent a best case or worst case.

[Text appears on table:  Worst case scenario]

The temperature and rainfall change categories can be given simple names such as warmer or drier.

[Text appears on table:  Much Drier, Drier, Wetter, Much Wetter; Slightly Warmer, Warmer, Hotter, Much Hotter]

[Image changes to show 3D graph and text appears:  Maximum Consensus:  No Evidence; Low Consensus; Very Low Consensus]

The maximum consensus can then be described in terms of such as warmer and drier.

[Image changes to show a computerised image of a spinning globe]

Climate Futures is a web based tool that helps users choose a subset of climate models for risk assessment, and it provides information about climate model reliability in specific regions.  Climate Futures is already being used by Vietnam and the Pacific Island Nations as part of their climate change risk assessment.

[Text appears on screen:  Vietnam; Pacific Island Nations]

It is now being developed for Australia.

[Text appears on screen:  Australia]

Climate Futures is a CSIRO product that can be tailored for any region of the world.

[CSIRO logo appears with text:  Climate Futures]

[Australian Government logo appears with text:  An Australian Government Initiative | Inspiring Australia]