Drought and weather patterns caused by El Nino are already having a severe impact on countries in Australia's immediate neighbourhood, the Chief of CSIRO Land and Water, Professor Graham Harris said today.

"There is hunger from crop failures in the highlands of Papua New Guinea and acute water shortages in Java, due to the same climate factors which are affecting Australia's Murray-Darling Basin," Professor Harris says.

"It is a clear indication that these issues of climate and water are not simply local problems for Australia, but problems which affect the entire region. They are beginning to highlight some areas of dangerous vulnerability for all of us."

"They raise the great question of the rate of human population growth and can the Green Revolution provide the necessary food? Can we sustain higher production on our good land, or must we expand into areas ever more marginal and fragile?"

In India, according to a recent scientific projection, food production will decline by ten per cent or more as a result of soil erosion, he says.

In parts of the Middle East and Asia, there is a growing risk of conflict, even war, over acutely scarce good quality water resources for human consumption.

Worldwide there is likely to be a growing demand for food aid, and the toll among the 800 million who already go hungry is likely to mount.

"And unless we can sustain food production in the face of climate fluctuations such as these, we may well see millions of refugees washing over the landscape, as is already the case in Africa.

Professor Harris says the challenge facing Australia is to generate the sustainable land and water knowhow to stave off future disasters.

"That clearly demands a greater and more unified effort by Australian science as a whole. It also raises the question of what sort of science should we be doing.

"In his latest book "A World of Wounds", Paul Ehrlich suggests that world is busy acquiring more and more knowledge about inconsequential things, while there are prodigious gaps in our understanding of natural ecosystems, how they work and how we can sustain them."

Professor Harris argues that Australia, from its experience in coping with difficult climates and harsh conditions, is uniquely qualified to lead an international push for concerted action to cope with what is already looming as the central issue of the coming century: can humanity sustain food production from less land, less water and fewer inputs without causing huge environmental damage.

"Our scientists are already acknowledged as being at the global cutting edge in many fields of land, water and agricultural science. It is now time to turn that scientific leadership into intellectual and moral leadership," he says.

More information:
Professor Graham Harris, CSIRO Land and Water 02 6246 5621
0417 463 158
Margaret Bryant, CSIRO Land and Water 08 9387 0215