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CSIRO CORPORATE MEDIA RELEASE 95/70

PREDICTING DROUGHTS AND FLOODS - FACT OR FICTION?

The reliable forecast of climatic extremes could save Australia tens of millions of dollars.

The 1982/83 El Nino, which led to the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Australia, cost Pacific-Rim nations the lives of 1500 people and caused between $2 billion and $8 billion in property and production losses in the region. The recent drought cost Australia 1% of GDP in 1994/95.

Facts such as these have led Dr Graeme Pearman, leader of CSIRO's Climate Variability and Impacts Program, to urge that more effort be given to researching natural climate variability.

'While the greenhouse effect will cause change well into next century, we have to live with the consequences of huge variations in climate today' Dr Pearman said.

Dr Pearman argued that, 'the effort we devote to understand, predict, and manage the impacts of climatic variability is minimal compared with its importance to the nation.'

'As a major agricultural commodity exporter Australia cannot afford the situation where other nations have a better insight into our climate than we have. It could leave us vulnerable in an increasingly competitive trade environment.'

'Understanding climate variability is also vital to the adequate design of urban infrastructure.'

After nearly 12 years research, we now know that the El Nino -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be predicted. Other research is revealing the importance of the Indian Ocean in moderating the effects of the El Nino over parts of Australia, often bringing rain to places that would otherwise be in the grip of drought.

Alongside climate research agricultural scientists, engineers, and hydrologists are developing tools that use climate information to help farmers and planners make decisions that will reduce exposure to climatic risk in poor years and increase returns on investment in better years.

According to Dr Pearman, 'new scientific results mean that scientists now believe there are major opportunities to predict climate up to a year ahead. In future planners and land managers will be able to use these predictions to make decisions that will result in less damage to the environment and greater economic returns.'

'Fulfilling this promise depends largely on the Australian community's understanding of what is possible and support for the research necessary to do the job.'

CSIRO's Climate Variability and Impacts Program has been established to tackle these problems using both the science of prediction, and the application of that science. It signals CSIRO's willingness to build multidisciplinary teams to take the task on in collaboration with other agencies whose responsibilities and skills compliment those of CSIRO.

Dr Graeme Pearman, Acting Director of CSIRO's Institute of Natural Resources and Environment, and Dr Colin Chartres, from the CSIRO Division of Soils, were speaking at a briefing to launch Coping with Climate, a special insert of CSIRO's environmental magazine Ecos. The briefing will take place 11.00 am 18 July 1995.

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