Overview

Current activities

Dr Philip Kokic collaborates with other CSIRO scientists on a range of projects in climate science and adaptation to climate risk.

His work includes:

• research aimed at developing actionable information for primary industries
• applying statistical methods that bridge application boundaries
• designing statistical analysis that focuses on relevant information gaps

Some of his current projects include:

• applying statistical methods to produce high-resolution seasonal climate projections for India and Sri Lanka
• measuring and explaining trends in the adaptive capacity of Australian agriculture

Background

Dr Philip Kokic has worked as a statistician in various academic institutes, for government and private industry, both in Australia and overseas.

He has worked across a broad range of application areas including sample survey design and analysis, economic and econometric analysis, financial and credit risk analysis, and more recently in the application of statistics to climate risk.

His skills include an ability to work effectively together with both scientists and economists to address important interdisciplinary problems. He has worked on many externally funded projects.

Dr Kokic's skills not only include statistics, but also the application of mathematical techniques particularly in economics, and the development of computer software systems.

His work has been published in over 50 refereed papers and reports, often in collaboration with researchers from other disciplines.

Recent major projects he has undertaken include:

• Intermediate timescale high-resolution climate projections in the Pacific region
• High-resolution climate projections for Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh and India
• The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change
• Forecasting the distribution of Australian farm incomes conditional on climate states
• The costs of preserving native vegetation in Australia.
• The analysis of economic data collected in farm surveys
• Linking spatial and economic data from farm surveys
• Factors influencing productivity growth in the Australian grains industry
• Predicting the impact of climate change on total factor productivity in Australian broadacre agriculture.

Dr Kokic is a member of the Statistical Society of Australia and the International Association of Survey Statisticians.

Academic qualifications

Dr Kokic holds a:

• Bachelor of Science (First Class Honours in Mathematical Statistics) from the University of Sydney, New South Wales, 1983
• Master of Science in Statistics from the Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, 1985
• Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematical Statistics from the University of Sydney, 1989.

Achievements

Dr Kokic's achievements during his career include:

• many refereed publications, reports and successful collaborations
• recipient of CSIRO's Wealth from Oceans Fellowship in 2007
• statistical and mathematical developments that have lead to: an improvement in agricultural productivity in Australia; a greater awareness of the potential economic impacts of climate risk on Australian agriculture; identification of ways for rural communities in Australia to adapt to climate change; and better tradeoffs between water use and the environment
• improvement in the statistical output from several official statistical organisations around the world.

Top publications

Hanigan, I.C., Butler, C.D., Kokic, P.N. and Hutchinson, M.F. (2012). Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970-2007. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. In press

Kokic, P. and Crimp, S. (2011) Statistical Downscaling. In Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011. Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview, 198-202

Kokic, P, Crimp, S., and Howden, M. (2011). Forecasting climate variables using a mixed-effect state-space model. Environmetrics, 22, 409-419

Kokic P, Che N, Chambers R. 2010. Analysis of Economic Data Collected in Farm Surveys. In R. Benedetti, F. Piersimoni, M. Bee and G. Espa (Eds.), Agricultural Survey Methods. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 323-38.

Nelson R, Kokic P, Crimp S, Martin P, Meinke H, Howden M, de Voil P, Nidumolu U. 2010. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability & change: Part II - Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity. Environmental Science and Policy 13(1), 18-27.

Kokic P, Nelson R, Meinke H, Potgieter A, Carter J. 2007. From rainfall to farm incomes; transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 58(10), 993-1003.

Kokic P, Davidson, A, Boero Rodrigez, V. 2006. Australian grains industry: factors influencing productivity growth. Australian Commodities, 13 (4), 705-12.

Kokic P, Chambers, R, Beare, S. 2000. Microsimulation of business performance. International Statistical Review, 68, 259-76.

Read more about CSIRO's research into adaptation to climate change at Primary industries, enterprises and communities adapting to climate change.