Fire crews combat a bushfire on Canberra’s Black Mountain.

Australian Air Quality Forecasting System

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System predicts daily levels of photochemical smog, atmospheric particles (including wind-blown dust and smoke) and 22 other pollutants.

• 12 January 2007 | Updated 14 October 2011

• Benefits
• Australia-wide dust and fire-smoke forecasts  

The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) predicts daily levels of photochemical smog, atmospheric particles (including wind-blown dust and smoke), and 22 other pollutants.

Benefits

Information from the AAQFS:

• helps people plan outdoor activities
• enables environment protection agencies and industry to test the effectiveness of strategies to reduce air pollution
• raises awareness of air quality as an environmental issue.

The AAQFS, initially funded by the Air Pollution in Major Cities Program under Environment Australia’s Natural Heritage Trust, has been operating daily since 2000.

It is a joint initiative between:

• CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
• CSIRO Energy Technology
• Bureau of Meteorology
• Environmental Protection Authority Victoria
• Environmental Protection Authority NSW
• Environmental Protection Authority South Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology generates the high resolution weather forecasts used in the system, and CSIRO has created computer models to calculate pollution levels.

The joint Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO super-computer enables computation of operational air quality forecasts in less than 20 minutes per region, showing how air quality will vary, hour-by-hour, suburb-by-suburb, over the next 36 hours.

A forecast is issued by 3.00 pm to meet the operational requirements of the Environmental Protection Authorities and a second, confirmatory, forecast is issued at 9.00 am the following morning.

The emissions inventory used to drive the forecasts is updated daily in response to the weather forecast and the expected changes in daily traffic patterns.

A long-term goal is to extend the air quality forecasting system to other regions in Australia and to use the system to simulate and forecast haze or visibility degradation, the measure often used by the public as the primary indicator of air quality. When used in combination, forecasts of haze and air quality degradation will provide a valuable tool for relating the perceived and health-related air-quality issues.

Look at the Australian Air Quality Forecast System.

Australia-wide dust and fire-smoke forecasts

Forecasts of wind-blown dust and fire smoke have been included in the Australia-wide AAQFS because of the importance of these aerosol sources, particularly during dry summers. 

A method of determining fire burn intensities and aerosol emission rates has been developed based on the Sentinel Hotspots satellite system.

The forecasting system will help predict extreme pollution events, which in the last few years have been due to drought-related effects such as wind-blown dust and bushfire smoke.

Look at the Australia-wide dust and fire-smoke forecasts.