The Earth's future climate will depend on whether the world manages to slow or even reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but warming is likely to continue.

Warming likely to continue

With greenhouse gas emissions continuing to increase, we expect the warming trend of the past century to accelerate throughout this century. We also expect changes to rainfall patterns and to the frequency of extreme weather events like cyclones and droughts.

Greenhouse gas concentrations will impact on the future climate

The Earth's future climate will depend on whether the world manages reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Since greenhouse gases have a long lifetime in the atmosphere, any change in emissions will have a delayed effect on atmospheric concentrations, so these concentrations are expected to continue to increase, leading to further warming and climate change for many decades.

Different emissions scenarios have been developed, based on different assumptions about future demographic change, economic development and technological advances. The concentrations paths are similar up to about 2030, and then diverge markedly. For more information on greenhouse gas scenarios visit the Climate Change in Australia website .

Australia's future climate

Temperature

Average temperatures across Australia are projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.5°C by 2030, compared with the climate of 1990, noting that Australia warmed by 0.6°C between 1910 and 1990.

By 2070, warming is projected to be 1.0 to 2.5°C for low greenhouse gas emissions, and 2.2 to 5.0°C for a high emissions scenario. Australians will experience this warming through an increase in the number of hot days and warm nights and a decrease in cool days and cold nights.

Rainfall

Climate models show that there may be less rainfall in southern areas of Australia during winter and in southern and eastern areas during spring. Wet years are likely to become less frequent and dry years and droughts more frequent. Climate models suggest that rainfall near the equator will increase globally, but it’s not clear how rainfall may change in northern Australia.

Climate extremes

Australia will also experience climate-related changes to extreme weather events. In most areas of the country, intense rainfall events will become more extreme. Fire-weather risk is also likely to increase and fire seasons will be longer. And although it is likely that there will be fewer tropical cyclones in the Australian region, the proportion of intense cyclones may increase.

Stay connected to the latest stories from our people and their research

We are conducting world-class research into oceans, coasts, climate and the atmosphere cutting edge research into environmental protection and economic development for our skies and seas.

Contact us

Have a question? Contact us using the form below, or call 1300 363 400 during business hours .

Your contact details

First name must be filled in

Your enquiry*

We'll need to know what you want to contact us about so we can give you an answer.