Australians could be travelling in vehicles powered by methanol produced from plantations of trees that cover 30 million hectares of our croplands and high rainfall pasture zones within the next 50 years.

This is the scenario painted by CSIRO's Barney Foran at an international conference on greenhouse gas control technologies in Cairns today (August 16). Mr Foran was reporting on work commissioned by the National Dryland Salinity Program.

CSIRO used a computer model to show that 30 million hectares of trees planted over the next 50 years could produce methanol to gradually replace liquid fuels currently produced from crude oil and its derivatives.

"Planting deep-rooted trees will also help control problems such as dryland salinity, will create employment in rural Australia and help replace future energy imports," Mr Foran says.

"Using methanol will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 400 million tonnes a year within the next 50 years compared to continuing 'business as usual'. That's about as much as emitted by the energy sector today in 2000," he says.

CSIRO developed the OzEcco model to look at the influences of population, lifestyle, organisation and technology to explore their possible impacts on Australia's environment and its physical economy.

The model assumes that the population grows to 25 million by 2050 and food exports are maintained at current levels, and that renewable energy and more efficient electricity production continue to be implemented to reflect government policies on greenhouse gas emissions.

"We looked at the production of methanol that would be needed to meet 90 percent of Australia's total oil requirements and all of its transportation needs," Mr Foran says.

"Methanol would be produced from the 'biomass' of forests growing under a 20-year rotation at a rate of 20 cubic metres a year.

"Plantations would need to be established at the rate of 400,000 hectares a year costing about $2,500 a hectare. We also assumed that the cost of a biomass electricity plant would be about one and half times the cost of a traditional electricity plant on a megawatt basis."

Using this scenario, researchers found that there would be only slightly lower growth rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with a methanol economy due to increased capital expenditure for the biomass electricity plants and the methanol fuel production system.

"However, a methanol economy would successfully 'decarbonise' economic growth in Australia and also help restore degraded areas of land in Australia," Mr Foran says.

The model's scenario also predicted the generation of 100,000 direct jobs by 2020 and more than 400,000 by 2050 with the new methanol economy. Most of these jobs would be in rural areas of Australia.

The model also predicts that there could be a total saving on energy imports by 2050 in the order of $18 billion in today's currency, if oil is priced at US$25 a barrel.

Mr Foran says a number of issues still needed to be investigated before this becomes a reality.

"What are the effects of plantations of single tree species on our biodiversity?" he asks.

"We also need to know whether we are ready for such radical changes to our economy from both a political and social point of view."

The Fifth International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies is being held by the Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme. This is part of the International Energy Agency and was set up in late 1991 as a major international collaboration to investigate technology for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases that have been generated by the actions of humans. 17 countries belong to the Programme.

Major sponsors for the Conference are the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, the Australian Greenhouse Office, BHP, BP Amoco, the US Department of Energy and Rio Tinto.

Media are invited to attend and/or interview speakers at the Fifth International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies at Cairns Convention Centre, 13-16 August 2000.

For media assistance, including an interview with Mr Foran, media kits, media releases, copies of speeches, please contact Jenni Metcalfe, phone 040 855 1866.

For more information on conference program: http://www.ieagreen.org.uk/programe.htm