Water for a Healthy Country Update


Climate impacts on water security investigated for regional NSW CSIRO researchers have projected that plans for new water infrastructure investments to service an area in northeastern New South Wales must start in 2008 to counter the risk posed by climate change to the region's water security. The research, through the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship was funded by the NSW Department of Commerce and Rous Water regional water supply authority, which supplies bulk water to a number of regional NSW councils, from Lismore to Ballina, with a population of about 93,000 people. The Rous County is part of the Wilsons River catchment. Researchers investigated the risks to the region's water supplies due to the implications of climate change on catchment yield, and taking into account changing demand for water. The work comes as global research is revealing a warming world with significant changes in regional climate systems, which poses risks to the security of water resources in many parts of Australia. For example, during the 20th century temperatures in northeastern NSW have increased at a rate of about 0.4°C each decade, and rainfall records show a slight decline over the past 50 years. On the demand side, using population projections and other considerations, it was previously projected that the likely future demand from the Rous Water scheme in the year 2030 was around 18,000ML per year, a 43 per cent increase over current demand. This study aimed to estimate future secure yields of Rous Water, using the Integrated Quantity and Quality Model (IQQM) and a range of climate change scenarios, to identify the most appropriate time horizon for making new investments in infrastructure. Results of the risk analysis suggested that decreases in secure yields were likely in the future. The best estimate of changes in secure yields in 2010, 2020, and 2030 were a -1.7 per cent, -5.8 per cent and -8.1 per cent decrease in secure yields of the Rous Water's supplies based on the Wilsons River IQQM. Secure yields were defined under a NSW Department of Public Works and Services definition of annual demand that can be supplied without restrictions for more than 5 per cent of the time; or without restrictions imposed, on average, for more than one year in 10; and the system should be able to supply more than 80 per cent of normal demand through a repeat of the worst drought on record. The assessment provided several options on the most appropriate time to build a new water sources, according to different supply and demand scenarios. The earliest time identified for requiring a new source was after 2018, which, with a 10-year planning and construction time, required plans to start in 2008. The study was reported in a paper, Climate change impact on rous water supply, published in Water, the Journal of the Australian Water Association, by Kirono, D. G. C., Podger, G., Franklin, W., and Sibert, R. (2007) (Water, 34 (2): 68-72). Contact: Kirono Drewi, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research		IN THIS EDITION: Update Home Message from the Director Major collaboration aims to improve energy efficient water desalination Water Research Alliance for South-East Queensland Greenhouse gases cut WA rainfall Climate impacts on water security investigated for regional NSW New study predicts the impact of forests on water Valuing Recreation in the Murray Science challenges in the Great Barrier Reef catchment WATER RESOURCES: Quenching Data Thirst the First Step to Water Security New sensor technology advances Australia's water management Publications Conferences About this email Meet some scientists from the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Meet Dr Sébastien Lamontagne Meet Manh Hoang EARLIER UPDATES December 2006 April 2006 September 2005 April 2005 November 2004
The Water for a Healthy Country Flagship is a CSIRO initiative and part of the National Research Flagships program that aims to deliver scientific solutions to advance Australia's most important national objectives. One of the largest scientific initiatives ever mounted in Australia, it aligns closely with the Federal Government's National Research Priorities. The initiative brings together our national research resources to deliver breakthroughs in fields ranging from healthcare to light metals and the environment.
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Water for a Healthy Country Flagship CSIRO Editor: Leane Regan CSIRO Black Mountain Laboratories, Canberra, ACT, 2601 Phone: +61 2 6246 4565 Fax: +61 2 6246 5560 editor.healthycountry@csiro.au www.csiro.au/healthycountry/	To Subscribe to this electronic newsletter enter your email address and click Subscribe.


June 2007	National Research Flagship	Water For A Healthy Country