Science

Climate Change in Australia report

Emission scenarios

The SRES Marker Scenario A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system.

The A1B group is based on the A1 storyline and scenario family but describes a balance across all energy sources.

The A1FI group is based on the A1 storyline and scenario family but describes an alternative direction of technological change in the energy system by emphasizing fossil-fuel intensity.

The A1T group is also based on the A1 storyline and scenario family but emphasizes predominately non-fossil energy resources.

The SRES Marker Scenario A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change is more fragmented and slower than in other storylines.

The SRES Marker Scenario B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with rapid change in economic structures, "dematerialization" and introduction of clean technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to environmental and social sustainability, including concerted efforts for rapid technology development, dematerialization of the economy, and improving equity.

The SRES Marker Scenario B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.

The carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and concentrations associated with each of these scenarios are shown below. Scenarios for methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, ozone and sulfate aerosols were also developed by the IPCC.

Figure: CO₂ emissions (left panel) and CO₂ concentrations (right panel) for six SRES scenarios (A1B, A1T A1FI, A2, B1, B2) and IS92a.

The 450ppm stabilization by 2100 scenario describes an emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO₂ concentrations at 450 parts per million (ppm) by the year 2100. This is shown in the yellow curves below.

The 550ppm stabilization by 2150 scenario describes an emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO₂ concentrations at 550 parts per million (ppm) by 2150. This is shown in the green curves below.

Figure: CO₂ emissions (left panel) and CO₂ concentrations (right panel) for SRES emission scenarios A2, A1B, B1 (black lines), emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO₂ concentrations at 450ppm by 2100 (yellow) and emission reduction scenario that stabilises CO₂ concentrations at 550ppm by 2150 (green). Also shown are stablisation scenarios for 650 ppm by 2200 (blue), 750 ppm by 2250 (cyan) and 1000 ppm by 2300 (red).

Global Climate Models

Model Name
CSIRO MK3.0

Host organisation
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Country of origin
Australia

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 18 vertical levels, horizontal resolution 1.8° lat/long, approx 200 km between gridpoints
Ocean: 31 vertical levels, horizontal resolution matching the atmospheric model, but 100 km resolution in the tropics to enhance the simulation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Annual-average decreases across all of Australia, except for increases along the east coast. Widespread decreases in all seasons, but increases in the south and east in summer and over NSW and southern Qld in autumn.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across all of Australia, smaller increases along the southern coast of Australia

Model Name
ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Host organisation
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Country of origin
Germany

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere resolution: horizontal resolution 1.8° lat/long, approx 200 km between gridpoints, 31 vertical levels
Ocean: horizontal resolution 1.5° lat/long, 40 vertical levels

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Annual-average decreases across temperate Australia, with increases over tropical Australia. Widespread decreases in all seasons, but summer increases in tropical Australia, eastern NSW and eastern S.A., and autumn increases in the western two-thirds of Australia.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across all of Australia, smaller increases along the southern coast of Australia.

Model Name
UKMO-HadGEM1

Host organisation
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Country of origin
United Kingdom

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution 1.25° latitude by 1.875° longitude, with 38 vertical levels extending to over 39 km in height.
Land surface: includes land and river routing components
Ocean: includes sea ice component

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Widespread decreases on an annual and seasonal basis, except for summer increases in the southeast, autumn/winter increases in the north-west and inland parts of W.A.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across Australia, largest inland. Smaller increases in southern Australia during winter.

Model Name
The Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)

Host organisation
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Country of origin
USA

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: Horizontal resolution: At the equator, the resolution is approximately 1.4° lat/long.
Ocean: horizontal resolution 0.27° lat x 1.125° long on the equator, 40 vertical levels.

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Annual-average increases in northern and eastern Australia. Widespread increases in spring and summer. In autumn, increases in the north with decreases elsewhere. Widespread decreases in winter.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across Australia, largest inland. Smaller increases in the northern and eastern Australia during summer.

Model Name
FGOALS-g1.0

Host organisation
LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences

Country of origin
China

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution: 2.8° lon x 2.8° lat, 26 vertical levels
Ocean: horizontal resolution 1°x1° lat/long

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Primarily decreases across Australia for all seasons.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across Australia, stronger inland. Weakest warming in winter.

Model Name
GFDL-CM2.1

Host organisation
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA

Country of origin
USA

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution: 2.5° longitude x 2.0° latitude, 24 vertical levels
Ocean: horizontal resolution 1° longitude x 1° latitude with enhanced tropical resolution (1/3° lat/long on equator)

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Annual-average decreases across Australia. Widespread decreases in all seasons, except for summer increases in the northern tropics and southeast, and spring increases in north Qld.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across all of Australia, smaller increases along the southern coast.

Model Name
MRI-CGCM2.3.2

Host organisation
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency

Country of origin
Japan

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: horizontal resolution: approx. 2.8°
Ocean: horizontal resolution: 2.5° longitude x 2.0° latitude outside the tropics (poleward of latitudes 12S and 12N) and 2.5° longitude x 0.5° latitude in the tropics (4° S - 4° N)

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Annual-average decreases over most of Australia, but increases in the tropics. Widespread decreases in autumn winter and spring, with widespread increases in summer and spring increases in the north-west.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases across Australia, greatest inland.

Model Name
ECHO-G

Host organisation
Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany) and Institute of KMA (Korea)

Country of origin
Germany and Korea

Atmospheric and ocean model attributes
Atmosphere: 3.75 degrees horizontal resolution, 19 vertical levels
Ocean: approx 2.8 degrees horizontal resolution, 20 vertical levels

General rainfall pattern across Australia
Widespread annual-average increases, but decreases along the south coast and Tasmania, especially in spring, summer and autumn. Widespread decreases in winter, but increases in central and northern Australia.

General temperature pattern across Australia
Increases greatest in the northwest and smallest in the east.