The world is getting warmer and that's a fact. It's mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels, particularly for cars and industry. Dr. Peter Whetton from Australia's science agency, CSIRO, has been examining computer models to predict just what the effect of global warming might mean.

Well over Australia we would expect warmings of around half a degree to two degrees by 2030 and more like one up to possibly 6 degrees by 2070.

That doesn't mean that people living in Tasmania are suddenly going to have a tropical climate, but eventually there will be some changes in the weather. One of the most dramatic affects though, will be on crops and vegetation.

In the Australian region, our climate models suggest that decreases in rainfall would be the main affect across Southern Australia and if you combine that with increases in evaporation that suggests quite a significantly drier environment, which would have some significant impacts on agriculture and water resources.

The only way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is for everyone in the world to become involved.

The reduction in emissions that would be achieved through Kyoto are relatively small and don't apply to all countries around the world. Much larger reductions are required if we are ultimately going to be able to stabilize our levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and therefore stabilize climate change.

Cars, industry, domestic power are all adding to global warming. Scientists like Dr. Peter Whetton predict that even with the existing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere global warming will continue over the next few decades. What happens beyond that is up to us.

Peter Whetton
CSIRO Atmospheric Research
Private Bag 1
Aspendale VIC 3195
Peter.Whetton@csiro.au