This report, developed by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology through the Australian Climate Change Science Program, provides the most up to date assessment of Australia's changing climate. (148 pages)
CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2007. Climate change in Australia: technical report 2007. CSIRO. 148 pp.
Background
Climate Change in Australia provides:
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information on observed climate change over Australia and the likely causes
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projections of changes to about 30 climate variables
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information on how to use the projections in risk assessments.
The projections focus on the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Some projections include probabilities of changes.
These projections supersede the last set of climate change projections released by CSIRO in 2001.
They incorporate material from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report, along with information of specific relevance to Australia.
Report contents
The Climate Change in Australia technical report contains chapters on the following:
The new projections incorporate material from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report, along with information of specific relevance to Australia.
- Past climate change
- Causes of past climate change
- Global climate change projections
- Regional climate change projections
- Application of climate projections in impact and risk assessment.
The report also contains site specific projections for 14 sites around Australia.
Key findings
The key findings of this report includes that by 2030, temperatures will rise by about 1 ºC over Australia – a little less in coastal areas, and a little more inland - later in the century, warming depends on the extent of greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions are low, warming of between 1 ºC and 2.5 ºC is likely by around 2070, with a best estimate of 1.8 ºC. Under a high emission scenario, the best estimate warming is 3.4 ºC, with a range of 2.2 ºC to 5 ºC.
Further, the report indicates there will be changes in temperature extremes, with fewer frosts and substantially more days over 35 ºC.
It also predicts that decreases in annual average rainfall are likely in southern Australia - rainfall is likely to decrease in southern areas during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and along the west coast during autumn. For 2030, there will be little annual rainfall change in the far north.
As with temperature, the report indicates that rainfall projections for later in the century are more dependent on greenhouse gas emissions. Under a low emission scenario in 2070, the best estimate of rainfall decrease is 7.5 per cent. Under a high emission scenario the best estimate is a decrease of 10 per cent.
The report indicates that although there will be more dry days, when it does rain, rainfall is likely to be more intense.
Other findings include:
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droughts are likely to become more frequent, particularly in the south-west
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evaporation rates are likely to increase, particularly in the north and east.
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high-fire-danger weather is likely to increase in the south-east
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tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense
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sea levels will continue to rise.
Comparisons with the CSIRO 2001 projections
The spatial patterns of temperature change in the new report's projections are similar to those projected in 2001. The patterns include greater inland warming and lower coastal warming. The new projections are for a range of warming narrower than determined in 2001 – for 2070, 1 to 5 ºC compared with 1 ºC to 6 ºC. The narrower range is partly due to improved consistency between models.
The spatial patterns of precipitation change are similar to those in 2001. However, there is stronger trend towards precipitation decreases in the new projections, with this being most evident in autumn and in the annual average. Ranges of projected changes have narrowed from 2001. For example, winter and spring ranges of change in south-western Western Australia now do not include the possibility of any significant precipitation increase (unlike those projected in 2001).
See the full report, along with summary material and regional climate change maps, at Climate Change in Australia [external link].
Find out more about CSIRO's work in Understanding our Changing Climate.
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