This report provides additional detail on the modelling utilised by the Future Fuels Forum to identify plausible scenarios for Australia’s future fuel mix. This document is complimentary to the Forum publication Fuel for thought. (112 pages)
Summary
Graham P, Reedman L, Poldy F. 2008. Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia. Report Number IR 1046. June 2008.
This publication describes the modelling framework that was applied, the scenario and model assumptions that were used to underpin the modelling and the detailed model results associated with each scenario examined in the Future Fuels Forum.
The report contains results for a number of sensitivity cases not discussed in detail in Fuel for thought.
While the core drivers of the main scenarios are greenhouse gas emissions trading and changes in international oil supply, the sensitivity cases address:
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uncertainty around social preferences for travel
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additional policies that might be considered by governments
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technological uncertainty in regard to biofuels
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hydrogen
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nuclear power
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CO2 capture and storage.
Besides providing additional detail on modelling results the purpose of the report is to make the assumptions of the modelling framework and underpinning data more transparent.
The model that is employed for this report is CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model (ESM). It is a partial equilibrium model of the Australian energy sector including a detailed transport sector representation.
It was co-developed by CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) in 2006.
Since that time CSIRO has significantly modified and expanded the ESM. Like all models, the ESM has specific strengths and limitations which are discussed in detail in this report.
Find out more about the Future Fuels forum and read Future Fuels Forum report - Fuel for thought.
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