Our Future World: An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios

Megatrends

A megatrend is a collection of trends, patterns of economic, social or environmental activity that will change the way people live and the science and technology products they demand.

The five interrelated megatrends identified in the report are:

1. More from less. This relates to the world’s depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources through economic and population growth. Coming decades will see a focus on resource use efficiency. 
2. A personal touch. Growth of the services sector of western economies is being followed by a second wave of innovation aimed at tailoring and targeting services. 
3. Divergent demographics. The populations of OECD countries are ageing and experiencing lifestyle and diet related health problems. At the same time there are high fertility rates and problems of not enough food for millions in poor countries.
4. On the move. People are changing jobs and careers more often, moving house more often, commuting further to work and travelling around the world more often. 
5. i World. Everything in the natural world will have a digital counterpart. Computing power and memory storage are improving rapidly. Many more devices are getting connected to the internet.

Five megatrends, resulting from 19 identified at the Trendy Thinking workshop, that will change the way we live and the science and technology we need.

Megashocks

A global risk, or 'megashock', is a significant and sudden event; the timing and magnitude of which are very hard to predict.

The report identified eight megashocks relevant to Australian science:

• asset price collapse
• slowing Chinese economy
• oil and gas price spikes
• extreme climate change related weather
• pandemic
• biodiversity loss
• terrorism
• nanotechnology risks.

Download the report

This report is designed to inform a wide range of strategic science planning activities within CSIRO.

We hope that after consultation with key experts and stakeholders, this material will help inform Australian industry, government and community decisions. 

We welcome comment and input from experts and stakeholders to this work in progress.

To download a copy of Our Future World, An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios go to: Our Future World report.

Author availability

If you would like one of the authors to present the report at a conference or strategy session for your organisation please contact Mr Frank Jensen, CSIRO Business Development on 02 6216 7036 or Frank.Jensen@csiro.au.