Answering your questions about CSIRO’s position on climate change and global warming.
Notions of a climate that is changing because of the effect of human activities have been around for over 15 years. However, it is really in the last five or six years that we are starting to see convincing evidence of a changing climate in our climate records.
What is CSIRO’s stance on climate change?
Scientific evidence suggests:
-
climate change is real and underway because the scientific evidence for global warming is compelling
-
most of the warming of the past 50 years is due to human activities
-
climate change will continue throughout this century
-
we contribute to, and support the assessments of IPCC
-
there is great value in understanding the likely impacts to reduce damage and increase benefits
-
to tackle the problem, we need to:
-
obtain better information about impending climate change
-
adapt to the likely climate changes
-
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
Does the CSIRO agree with the IPCC?
CSIRO supports the assessments produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The CSIRO is actively involved with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
What are the likely affects of climate change on Australia?
The likely affects of climate change in Australia include that Australia will:
-
become warmer and drier
-
become warmer by 0.4 to 2 °C by 2030, 1 to 6 °C by 2070, more hot days and fewer cold days
-
have less rainfall in the south, particularly in winter and spring
-
have more rainfall in north-eastern Australia in summer and autumn
-
have increased evaporation and changes in rainfall will lead to a net drying over all of Australia
-
have heavier rainfall
-
experience stronger tropical cyclones.
How much will sea-levels rise?
CSIRO and the IPCC estimate a rise in sea level for the end of the 21st century to be 18-59 cm compared to 1990’s sea level.
Extensive research into rising sea-levels has been conducted by:
Sea levels have risen largely due to warming of the ocean and the consequent thermal expansion and melting of non-polar glaciers and ice caps and the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.
In Australia, an average sea level rise of 20 mm per decade has been observed over the last 50 years
Is global warming attributable to human activities?
Studies of ice core records show that the present atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has not been exceeded for the past 420 000 years, and possibly not for 20 million years.
The observed changes in climate, especially temperature increases since about 1970, cannot be explained by natural causes such as solar activity.
For the past 420 000 years global atmospheric carbon dioxide has only varied between about 180 and 280 parts-per-million (ppm), and stayed steady at about 280 ppm from 1 000 to 250 years ago.
However, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, some 250 years ago, the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have increased dramatically.
Human activities, such as burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), land clearing and agricultural practices have:
-
increased carbon dioxide by more than a third
-
increased nitrous oxide levels by about 17 per cent
-
methane concentrations have more than doubled.
The observed changes in climate, especially temperature increases since about 1970, cannot be explained by natural causes such as solar activity.
Scientists use computer models to simulate past and future climate variations. Reconstructions of climate data for the past 1 000 years indicate that this recent warming is unusual and is unlikely to have resulted from natural causes alone.
Simulations of the 20th century have been driven by observed changes in various factors that affect climate.
When only natural factors, such as volcanic and solar activity, are included in the models, the simulations do not explain the observed warming in the second half of the century. Natural factors contributed to the observed warming of the first half of the 20th century. However, most of the observed warming over the past 50 years is likely to have been due to the human-induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
Global temperature changes
The following graph indicates the temperature variation over the last 150 years compared to a base line of the average temperature of the period 1961-90.
Historical variation in global temperatures compared to the average for 1961-1990. Is CSIRO involved with CO2 separation research?
Currently CSIRO is not actively involved in CO2 separation research. CSIRO's focus in this area is on carbon sequestration.
What is Greenhouse 2007?
Greenhouse 2007 is a CSIRO conference that will focus on:
-
projections for the future
-
the use of probabilities for risk management
-
the impact climate change will have on human activity
-
changing perceptions of climate change.
There will be many examples of industry and government approaches to tackling climate change, as well as presentations on the latest Australian and international science findings. This high-profile, prestigious international event is designed for representatives from industry, research organisations, government, and the community.
Where can I get more information on climate change?
More information is available through :
-
Australian Greenhouse Office
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
-
Bureau of Meteorology
-
The Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre.
Find out more about our work in Climate Change.
Site Map | Legal Notice and Disclaimer | Privacy | Copyright | Last updated: 8 August 2007
