Energy sector modelling

• The capability
• How CSIRO uses it
• Who else is involved
• Publicly available ESM reports

The electricity generation and transport sectors are integral to Australia’s economy and way of life. They are also two of our nation’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, together representing half of total emissions.

CSIRO’s Energy Sector Model (ESM) integrates the centralised and decentralised electricity generation sector with the transport sector in a single modelling package that can be used to predict and understand major technological and market changes in the way Australia produces and uses energy.

The capability

ESM technology inputs include:

• 17 centralised electricity generation technologies including various fossil fuel options with and without capture and storage, nuclear and renewables such as hydro, wind, solar thermal, biomass and hot fractured rocks
• 14 decentralised electricity generation technologies including natural gas and biomass plants with and without cogeneration, diesel, fuel cells and solar photovoltaics
• Rail, air and sea transport modes together with nine road transport vehicle categories:
  • light, medium and large passenger vehicles
  • light, medium and large light commercial vehicles
  • rigid trucks
  • articulated trucks
  • buses.
• 12 transport fuels:
  • petrol
  • diesel
  • liquefied petroleum gas
  • compressed natural gas
  • petrol with 10 per cent ethanol blend
  • diesel with 20 per cent biodiesel blend
  • ethanol and biodiesel blended at 85 per cent or higher concentrations
  • gas to liquids diesel
  • coal to liquids diesel
  • electricity
  • hydrogen (from renewables).
• Four road vehicle engine types:
  • internal combustion only
  • mild hybrid electric/internal combustion
  • plug-in hybrid electric/internal combustion
  • electric vehicle only.

How CSIRO uses it

ESM can determine the impact of various potential future events, policies and technology breakthroughs on:

• the uptake of new technologies in electricity generation and road transport
• the contribution of the energy sector to greenhouse gas emissions or, alternatively, the price of carbon needed to reach a particular greenhouse gas emission reduction path
• the price of electricity in the wholesale market as well as for households and businesses
• the costs of road transport per kilometre for individuals and businesses.

Work is continually underway to add to and expand ESM to include new technologies and the resources upon which they rely.

CSIRO has also developed another electricity market model called NEMsim that specifically examines the detailed behaviour of individual electricity plants at hourly intervals in the National Electricity Market. ESM only models this market in annual time steps. NEMsim and ESM are sometimes interfaced when outputs from both models are required. Find out more about this Simulator solution for national energy market.

Who else is involved

CSIRO co-developed ESM with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) for the Energy Futures Forum.

Publicly available ESM reports

• Modelling energy futures forum scenarios
• Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia
• Options for electricty generation in Australia [external link]
• Greenhouse gas mitigation in road transport

Contact Information

Primary Contact

Contact

Related Links

• Energy Transformed Flagship
• Your carbon footprint
• Transport & Infrastructure
• ABARE [external link]

• Understanding and planning energy futures
• The Energy Futures Forum
• Future Fuels Forum report - Fuel for thought
• Simulator solution for national energy market