The Cairns esplanade in Queensland, Australia

Envisioning possible futures for the Great Barrier Reef catchment

This Water for a Healthy Country flagship project will find out the views and expectations of people in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area and use scenario planning to develop future visions of the region at 2050.

• 24 July 2007 | Updated 14 October 2011

Overview

This project will develop four scenarios that describe what the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchment might be like for communities, industries and resource agencies in 2050.

Background

The catchment adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon is a region of economic significance and exceptional environmental value. It extends about 2 300 kilometres along the coast of Queensland, from the Tropic of Capricorn to the tip of Cape York.

Careful planning of future land-use and landscape management options is important for:

• maintaining productivity
• improving water quality
• sustaining healthy ecosystems and communities
• protecting the reef.

Research objectives

The research team aims to:

• create a methodology for developing future scenarios for the GBR
• identify and analyse the key factors or variables likely to fundamentally influence the behaviour of communities, industries and natural ecosystems in the GBR catchment
• articulate and challenge expectations about the future
• develop four plausible scenarios that describe what the GBR catchment might be like for communities, industries and resource agencies in 2050
• increase the understanding of the factors that will drive environmental, economic and social change in the GBR catchment over coming decades
• increase collaboration between researchers, planners and policy-makers in ongoing strategic deliberations, and monitoring of the future as it unfolds
• facilitate wide and ongoing communication and uptake of findings to enhance the capacity of planners and policy-makers in strategic decision-making about the future of the GBR catchment.

Research plan

This project is being conducted by the Water for a Healthy Country Research Flagship.

The research will be conducted in five phases:

• building partnerships
• developing future scenarios for the GBR catchment based on interviews with collaborators
• refining scenarios
• communicating scenarios to a wide range of audiences
• applying scenarios to specific policy planning questions.

The research team will collaborate with people with key roles in research, planning and policy development in the GBR region to ascertain their views and expectations for the future of the region.

Interviews will be carried out with:

• government
• natural resource management sector
• industry
• researchers
• social and environmental sectors
• arts and culture organisations.

Where possible, we will use in-depth and comprehensive data to verify that the scenarios are grounded in the experiences of those who will ultimately benefit from them and represent a logical sequence of events.

Research outcomes

The research outcomes include:

• increased understanding of the factors that drive environmental, economic and social change in the GBR catchment over coming decades
• increased collaboration between researchers, planners and policy-makers in ongoing strategic deliberations, and monitoring of the future as it unfolds
• enhanced ability to use a scenario development process and outcomes in strategic decision making about the future of the GBR catchment.

Partners

This research is a collaboration between:

• Australian and Queensland government agencies
• regional natural resource management boards
• local government
• the Cardwell Shire Floodplain Program
• James Cook University
• CSIRO.

Our collaborators will provide information, act as a reality check and guide the uptake and use of the scenarios.