Ocean observations from the Southern Surveyor contribute to CSIRO's climate models.

Understanding and predicting climate change

A deep understanding of the oceans and atmosphere gives CSIRO a capacity to predict climate change and assess its impact.

• 1 July 2008 | Updated 14 October 2011

• What we do
• How we're different
• How we do it
• Who else is involved?

What we do

CSIRO is a leader in understanding how the oceans influence climate and we contribute to international, national and regional predictions of climate change and climate variability.

Our climate observing and modelling systems enable us to deliver credible climate predictions and impact assessments. In particular, we work with governments and other research organisations to help Australia adapt to climate variability and change.

How we're different

The CSIRO global climate model underpins this capability,a complex mathematical model that simulates global weather and climate systems.The model is among a select group used in climate assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

It quantifies all the key drivers of climate, such as the atmosphere, oceans, ice surfaces and the biosphere, and assesses how they interact to determine the patterns of climate and weather.

The model can be run across a century or more of data and used to:

• predict future climatic conditions from changing greenhouse gases and aerosol levels
• test its simulation of climate changes against past real-world results.

How we do it

Our skills and experience in this area include:

• designing and developing ocean observation systems
• characterising variability and change in oceans as part of the climate system
• combining marine observations and models to interpret and forecast the state of the ocean
• developing models that predict climate in finer detail and a smaller spatial scale that can be applied to specific geographical regions.

This is supported by a range of techniques, facilities and systems operated by CSIRO that gather ocean observations across the Southern, Indian and Pacific oceans.

They include the:

• CSIRO remote sensing facility at Hobart, Tasmania, which receives and processes satellite data
• Marine National Facility Research Vessel Southern Surveyor which conducts oceanographic research voyages
• CSIRO Ships-of-Opportunity Program which sees ocean temperature and salinity measurements collected by commercial vessels
• design, construction, instrumentation and deployment of deep ocean moorings.

Access to a broader range of oceanographic data is maintained through collaboration in a range of international ocean-observing networks.

For example, we are part of the Argo project establishing a global array of 3 000 robotic profiling floats to measure temperature and salinity in the upper 2 000 metres of the oceans.

Who else is involved?

Partnerships with the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology enhance our efforts to understand and model the oceans and climate.

Learn more about how the Southern Surveyor explores Australian seas.