IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT JULY 2025 CSIRO CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE Consulting & Implementation Services (CIS) Consulting & Implementation Services (CIS) is a management consulting firm. CIS's major service lines include strategic and business planning, securing funding for innovative projects, implementation support, reviews and evaluation, and commercialisation support. 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CSIRO CCS IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT 01 Content Executive Summary 1. Introduction 02 03 2. CSIRO's 25-Year Journey in CCS: A Synopsis 05 3. Key Impact Areas 08 Appendices 24 3.1 Establishing Australia’s CCS Foundations 3.2 Advancing CCS Science and Technology 3.3 Underpinning Policy and Investment with Credibility 3.4 Building National CCS Capability 3.5 Building Public Trust and Social Licence 3.6 Global Standing and International Influence 3.7 Navigating the Path to Commercialisation CSIRO CCS IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT 02 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A 25-YEAR LEGACY OF CONFIDENCE, CAPABILITY AND CREDIBILITY IN CCS For a quarter of a century, CSIRO has been a central and indispensable pillar in Australia's Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) journey. Through sustained, world-class research and development, CSIRO has been instrumental in transforming CCS from a theoretical promise into a feasible option, building a national legacy of scientific confidence, technical capability, and institutional credibility. This impact assessment, based on qualitative analysis of CSIRO’s project portfolio and extensive consultations with national and international stakeholders, evaluates CSIRO’s contributions to carbon capture and storage over the past 25 years. Key Areas of Impact The impact of CSIRO’s work is evident across several key areas. Establishing Australia’s CCS Foundations Contributed to early geological assessments to prove Australia's storage potential and pioneered the collaborative platforms that define the sector. Advancing CCS Science and Technology Developed novel capture solvents and world-leading monitoring techniques, establishing CSIRO as a global leader in CCS innovation. Underpinning Policy and Investment with Credibility Provided trusted, independent advice that gave governments the confidence to build regulatory frameworks and de-risk major project investments. Building National CCS Capability Forged a highly skilled workforce and a cross-sector network of experts that permeates Australian industry and academia today. Building Public Trust and Social Licence Acted as a key voice in building community confidence through transparent, evidence-based engagement and communication. Global Standing and International Influence Cemented Australia's reputation as a top-tier CCS research nation and became an influential partner in major international collaborations. Navigating the Path to Commercialisation Generated a portfolio of de-risked, commercial-ready technologies and invaluable expertise, preparing Australia for large-scale CCS deployment. 01 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and context 1. INTRODUCTION 03 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a suite of technologies designed to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by capturing CO₂ from industrial sources or directly from the atmosphere, then transporting and permanently storing it underground. While the technology to separate CO₂ from industrial gas streams has existed for decades, its climate-mitigation relevance gained international prominence in the 1990s, most notably with Norway’s Sleipner project, which began injecting approximately one million tonnes of CO₂ annually beneath the North Sea in 1996. CSIRO emerged early as a trailblazer in CCS research and development in Australia. Over the past quarter-century, CSIRO has undertaken a significant and sustained CCS journey. This was not an isolated scientific endeavour; it was a sustained national effort that, despite a dynamic and often volatile backdrop of shifting global energy paradigms and fluctuating domestic climate policies, has ultimately created a strategic national capability in CCS. This report presents the findings of a formal qualitative impact assessment of CSIRO’s CCS research. The assessment aims to answer the core questions: 1.2 Purpose of this report From the initial explorations of geological storage potential to the operation of sophisticated pilot plants and the development of advanced monitoring techniques, CSIRO's work has played a critical role in strengthening the global capacity to evaluate and deploy CCS as part of broader climate change efforts. How has CSIRO contributed towards the CCS technology development, both in Australia and internationally? And specifically, what have CSIRO’s contributions been toward investigating CCS’ viability in contributing to net zero, and have they lowered the barriers to adoption for CCS in Australia? The findings are intended to serve two primary purposes: To understand CSIRO's contribution to CCS over the past 25 years To communicate and share the impact of CSIRO's sustained investment in CCS to key stakeholders 1. INTRODUCTION 04 1.3 Scope and methodology 01 INTRODUCTION This impact assessment examines CSIRO’s major research, demonstration and knowledgetransfer activities in CCS from 1999 to 2024. The impact assessment methodology was aligned with the CSIRO Impact Evaluation Guide and structured around four core activities. Program Logic and Impact Assessment Framework The assessment was guided by a formal Program Logic and Impact Assessment Framework, developed at the outset of the project. These tools provided a structured approach to map the causal links between CSIRO's research inputs, activities, and outcomes. Refer Appendix 2 for the program logic diagram. Stakeholder Consultations A two-stage stakeholder consultation process was conducted. Stage 1 involved a small set of interviews to understand stakeholders’ broad, system-level views of CSIRO’s contributions in CCS; Stage 2 comprised structured interviews drawn from three stakeholder groups across the 25-year period: Australian and international academic collaborators, domestic and international industry partners, and Australian Government agencies. Data Analysis and Reporting The qualitative data from the consultations were coded and analysed to identify key themes and impacts. The findings were consolidated into this final report, structured to address the assessment question. It is important to acknowledge the nature of the evidence gathered. The findings and narrative are primarily synthesised from the qualitative data gathered during the stakeholder consultations, and are therefore contingent on the insights provided by the stakeholders who agreed to participate. This report seeks to provide a balanced view, incorporating both positive and critical feedback from stakeholders. The assessment recognises that some of the identified "gaps," particularly regarding commercialisation outcomes, extend beyond CSIRO's primary institutional role. As Australia's national science agency, its focus is to drive longterm, foundational research that underpins innovation. In this context, its role is that of an enabler: supporting the translation and commercialisation of research rather than leading it (CSIRO Corporate Plan 2024-25). Therefore, findings that highlight a lack of commercial translation are not necessarily presented as a failing, but rather as a reflection of the organisation's strategic focus and the complex "valley of death" that exists between scientific innovation and industrial application. The analysis throughout this report is presented with this context in mind. Desktop Review A review of relevant documentation was undertaken to provide the foundation for the assessment. This included CSIRO-provided documents of its research journey, annual reports from partner organisations, technical reports, peer-reviewed publications, patents, government policy documents, and media release. 2. CSIRO's 25-Year Journey in CCS: A Synopsis 05 02 CSIRO'S 25-YEAR JOURNEY IN CCS: A SYNOPSIS Over its 25-year journey, CSIRO’s involvement in CCS has evolved through distinct phases, shaped by shifting government policies, fluctuating investment landscapes, and the persistent dedication of its scientists. The Foundational Era (1999 – 2008): Building the Bedrock CSIRO’s formal entry into CCS began at the turn of the millennium, a period defined by establishing fundamental knowledge and building national capability from the ground up. The initial focus was on answering the primary question: Is CCS a viable option for Australia? The GEODISC program (1999-2003), conducted within the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre (APCRC), was a pivotal first step. This initiative provided the first comprehensive assessment of Australia's geological storage potential, establishing the now-implicit understanding that while Australia possesses vast storage resources, they are not always co-located with major emission sources. This era fostered a spirit of national collaboration, creating a collaborative environment between researchers, industry, and government that would prove essential for future progress. The establishment of the CO2CRC in 2003 institutionalised this collaborative approach, with CSIRO as a critical founding research partner. This collaboration led to the creation of the Otway International Test Centre, a world-renowned facility that became the epicentre of Australia’s storage research. CSIRO’s international engagement also began in earnest during this period, with scientists participating in early international projects like the Frio Brine Pilot Experiment in Texas (2004-2006). This early cross-pollination of ideas and expertise helped position Australia on the global CCS stage. On the carbon capture front, CSIRO initiated its long-term research into aqueous aminebased absorbent technologies in 2004. This foundational work in the laboratory soon transitioned to the field with the establishment of Australia’s first post-combustion capture (PCC) pilot plants, including a key collaboration on the Huaneng Beijing Co-generation Power Plant (2007-2009) and the commissioning of the Loy Yang Power PCC Pilot Plant (2008). This era was characterised by building scientific credibility, developing core expertise, and proving the basic technical feasibility of CCS in an Australian context. 2. CSIRO's 25-Year Journey in CCS: A Synopsis 06 02 CSIRO'S 25-YEAR JOURNEY IN CCS: A SYNOPSIS The Flagship Era (2009 – 2016): Accelerated Investment and Activity Following the foundational work, this period was marked by a surge in government investment and a significant acceleration of research and development activity. The launch of the Australian Government's CCS Flagships Program provided substantial funding, enabling a move towards larger, more complex demonstration projects. CSIRO was a critical science and technology partner for these flagships, providing foundational scientific research and applied R&D to support both industry and government collaborators. This era also saw CSIRO collaborate with industry partners to establish a proliferation of PCC pilot plants at major coal-fired power stations, such as Tarong, Munmorah, and Vales Point. These facilities were crucial for testing and optimising capture solvents under realworld conditions, particularly addressing the challenges posed by the unique impurities in Australian flue gas. This hands-on experience cemented CSIRO’s reputation as a global leader in solvent-based capture R&D. Simultaneously, storage research advanced significantly. CSIRO scientists took on leadership roles across multiple phases of the CO2CRC Otway Project, including Stage 1 and Stage 2. Their work focused on the complex mechanisms of CO₂ trapping in both depleted gas fields and saline formations. This work provided unprecedented insights and de-risked geological CO₂ storage, a critical step for large-scale deployment. The Flagships program also catalysed major site characterisation projects like the South West Hub in Western Australia, CarbonNet in Victoria, and the CTSCo Project in Queensland, with CSIRO providing essential geoscience expertise for all three. International collaboration also deepened through initiatives like the China-Australia Geological Storage of CO₂ (CAGS) Project, a Geoscience Australia-led initiative with CSIRO participation, which focused on capacity building and accelerating deployment in both nations. The global engagement was exemplified by CSIRO's deep and continuous involvement with the IEAGHG R&D Programme. CSIRO experts were integral to IEAGHG's expert networks, conference committees, and Summer School, authoring key technical reports and cementing Australia's scientific leadership on the world stage While this was a period of great optimism and activity, some stakeholders noted a gradual shift from the collaborative approach of the early years to a more competitive landscape, as various projects and institutions vied for funding and prominence. 2. CSIRO's 25-Year Journey in CCS: A Synopsis 07 02 CSIRO'S 25-YEAR JOURNEY IN CCS: A SYNOPSIS A Shifting Landscape (2017 – Present): Maturing Capability Amidst Uncertainty The most recent era has been defined by a more challenging and uncertain political and funding environment. Shifting government priorities and a waning public focus on CCS led to reduced investment, creating a "valley of death" between pilot-scale demonstration and full commercial deployment. Despite these headwinds, CSIRO’s capability matured significantly. The organisation’s role evolved from primary research to providing expert technical advice, de-risking projects, and informing policy. This is evidenced by its contributions to the amendment of the Environment Protection (Sea Dumping) Act, which is a critical step in establishing the domestic legal framework for CCS in Commonwealth waters and enabling the transboundary movement of CO₂, and the development of strategic roadmaps for CO₂ Utilisation, the WA CCUS Hubs, and the Northern Territory Low Emission Hub. On the ground, the South West Hub site evolved into the In-Situ Laboratory, a sophisticated field-testing facility run in collaboration with state, federal, and international partners like Japan’s RITE, focusing on advanced monitoring and fault behaviour. The PICA Project, a partnership with AGL and IHI, demonstrated the potential of advanced solvents to significantly reduce the energy penalty of capture. This period also highlighted the challenges of commercialisation. While CSIRO’s solvent technology continued to advance and achieve world-class results, limited domestic investment support meant that commercialisation opportunities frequently moved overseas. Nonetheless, the sustained research effort ensured that Australia retained substantial expertise and a suite of validated technologies, ready for deployment as the policy landscape begins to shift once more in favour of CCS as an essential tool for achieving net-zero emissions. 03 KEY IMPACT AREAS 3. Key Impact Areas 08 3.1 Establishing Australia’s CCS Foundations 3.2 Advancing CCS Science and Technology 3.3 Underpinning Policy and Investment with Credibility 3.4 Building National CCS Capability 3.5 Building Public Trust and Social Licence 3.6 Global Standing and International Influence 3.7 Navigating the Path to Commercialisation From Theoretical Promise to Operational Reality Leadership in CCS R&D De-risking Projects and Informing Government Creating Skilled Workforce and Cross-Sector Expertise Engaging Communities Through Evidence-Based Outreach CSIRO’s Role in the International CCS Community Bridging the Valley of Death 3.1 FROM THEORETICAL PROMISE TO OPERATIONAL REALITY CSIRO was an indispensable partner from the very beginning of CCS research in Australia, playing a central role in the foundational work that established the technology’s scientific viability and built the confidence necessary for subsequent investment. Stakeholders consistently identify this early contribution as one of CSIRO's most critical and enduring legacies. CSIRO's journey in CCS began in 1999, when CCS was largely a theoretical concept in Australia, and its involvement was pivotal in building the foundational knowledge and collaborative structures that transformed CCS from a promising idea into a field of operational research. This was achieved through a deeply collaborative ethos, institutionalised through its role in two key initiatives: the GEODISC program and the CO2CRC. ESTABLISHING AUSTRALIA’S CCS FOUNDATIONS 3.1 Establishing Australia’s CCS Foundations 09 The GEODISC Program: Charting the National Potential The GEODISC program, an initiative under the APCRC, represented the nation's first major foray into understanding its potential for geological CO₂ storage. As a foundational partner alongside Geoscience Australia, CSIRO’s deep expertise in petroleum reservoir dynamics, hydrology, and geochemistry was essential to the program’s success. This pioneering work established a crucial fact that has shaped Australian CCS strategy ever since: Australia possesses abundant geological storage capacity, even if it is not always co-located with major emission sources. The program was also pivotal in fostering a nationally-focused, collaborative model that brought together key Australian institutions and international partners. The CO2CRC Collaboration: Institutionalising Collaboration This foundation was solidified in 2003 with the establishment of the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), where CSIRO was a critical founding research partner. The CO2CRC model was highly effective, bringing together universities, industry, and government to tackle the challenges of CCS. A key impact of this model was its ability to harmonise the highly competitive environment that often exists between research institutions, allowing them to work together under a single banner. This enabled CO2CRC to leverage deep scientific expertise of CSIRO and other partners, creating a whole far greater than the sum of its parts. The success of the CO2CRC's collaborative model in carbon storage, combined with CSIRO's parallel, independent research in carbon capture, is widely seen as the reason for Australia's initial leadership position in the global CCS community. The Otway International Test Centre: From Foundation to Global Benchmark The globally recognised success of the Otway International Test Centre is a direct testament to the power of the CO2CRC's integrated model. With CSIRO as an important scientific partner, the facility became a world-leading site for demonstrating safe and effective CO₂ storage, widely regarded by international peers as a "global benchmark" and a "trendsetter" in storage science. The primary impact of this work was to de-risk the technology by proving that safe geological storage was not just a theory, but a practical reality. The tangible evidence and confidence generated at Otway were instrumental in enabling subsequent commercial projects. Both industry and research stakeholders confirmed that the ability to point to the successful injection and monitoring programs at Otway, underpinned by CSIRO’s scientific leadership, was a decisive factor in satisfying regulators and securing the crucial approvals for CCS projects that followed. 3.2 LEADERSHIP IN CCS R&D Over 25 years, CSIRO has established itself as a global leader in the foundational science of CCS. CSIRO has built a formidable reputation for high-quality research with depth, rigour and continuity. CSIRO’s research has not only advanced the technological frontier but has also been instrumental in de-risking CCS for potential deployment globally. This leadership is evident across both capture and storage domains, from pioneering new capture chemistries to developing world-benchmark methods for monitoring stored CO₂. CSIRO’s work has bridged laboratory research and field deployment, building confidence in the technical feasibility, safety, and scalability of CCS. ADVANCING CCS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 3.2.1 Carbon Capture CSIRO has been a leading innovator in solvent-based carbon capture, underpinned by an extensive portfolio of patents on novel absorbents such as aqueous amines, ionic liquids, and advanced process configurations. CSIRO’s independent carbon capture research began in earnest around 2004 and has since made substantial contributions to the global understanding of PCC, especially in the context of Australia’s unique energy profile. Stakeholders emphasised CSIRO’s foundational work in solvent screening, which produced one of the first publicly available data sets comparing amine performance under real flue gas conditions. 3.2 Advancing CCS Science and Technology 10 CSIRO focused on a critical research niche that global competitors were not addressing; developing solvents suited to Australia’s high-sulphur, high-ash 'dirty' flue gas from brown coal. This strategic focus addressed a global knowledge gap and positioned CSIRO at the forefront of solving complex industrial capture challenges. These pilot plants provided bankable data on operational costs and solvent performance, created crucial cost certainty for potential investors, and built the operational expertise necessary for commercial-scale planning, successfully demonstrating the technical feasibility and reliability of PCC technology. These plants were not just proof-ofconcept but also became field laboratories, exposing solvents to live flue gas from black and brown coal. This process uncovered fundamental chemical challenges, with a prime example being the work at the Tarong pilot plant. Stakeholders described this work as a major contribution to the global understanding of how nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in flue gas degrades amine solvents and creates harmful nitrosamines, a discovery that helped explain solvent losses observed in multiple pilot plants globally and would have been impossible to comprehensively assess at a laboratory scale. CSIRO’s work also demonstrated the ability to translate laboratory science into "steel-in-theground" pilot plants operating in real-world industrial environments. International experts consistently acknowledge that Australia, led by CSIRO, entered the pilot-scale testing phase ahead of many global peers. The series of pilot plants, at Huaneng in China, and at the Loy Yang, Tarong, and Vales Point power stations in Australia, were among the largest and most ambitious of their time. While these foundational pilot plants focused on coal-fired power, the knowledge gained and the PCC technology itself are directly applicable to other hardto- abate sectors such as cement and steel manufacturing, where CCS remains an essential decarbonisation pathway. CASE STUDY A Landmark International Carbon Capture Collaboration: The Huaneng Beijing PCC Pilot Plant 3.2 Advancing CCS Science and Technology 11 The Huaneng Beijing pilot plant stands out as a landmark international collaboration and a key demonstration of CSIRO's technical leadership and its role in global knowledge transfer. The project was funded via the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP) initiative, bringing together CSIRO's capture technology expertise with the resources and operational knowledge of its partners, China's Huaneng Group and its Clean Energy Research Institute. The collaboration involved Huaneng Group providing the host site at a major cogeneration power plant in Beijing, while CSIRO contributed its leading amine-based solvent technology knowhow and operational expertise. Stakeholders noted that CSIRO's prior operational experience at its Loy Yang pilot plant was a key factor, with the Chinese team receiving valuable training in Australia before the Beijing plant was commissioned. The plant achieved its design goal of capturing 3,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually, operating reliably for over a year with a capture rate exceeding 85% and producing CO₂ with 99.99% purity. The project's impact was multi-layered and significant: Demonstration and Technology Transfer The project successfully demonstrated the practical application of Australianled PCC technology in a major coal-dependent economy. Stakeholders noted that the collaboration played a great role in promoting carbon capture technology transfer and knowledge sharing between Australia and China, highlighting the project's importance in facilitating crucial technology transfer with what they termed "the most important country in the world in terms of CO₂ emissions". Building Global Networks The collaboration created lasting international networks. Stakeholders noted that the established CSIRO-Huaneng relationship was instrumental in helping US organisations and government bodies to subsequently engage with China on CCS development. Key personnel from the project have gone on to lead international standardisation efforts within the International Standardisation Organisation (ISO), directly extending the legacy of the collaboration into current global forums. A Model for International R&D The project served as a powerful model for international scientific diplomacy, demonstrating how Australian R&D could be leveraged to build capability and accelerate decarbonisation efforts globally. "CSIRO presented a compelling case of why we should be looking to trial ... it was all about taking the research from the laboratory to applied research in a real-world situation, and that's probably the greatest strength of CSIRO." - Roland Davies, former Business Development Lead at AGL Loy Yang 3.2 LEADERSHIP IN CCS R&D ADVANCING CCS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 3.2.2 Carbon Storage CSIRO’s leadership in carbon storage science is pronounced and has delivered direct, tangible impacts on major research and commercial projects. Stakeholders unanimously view CSIRO’s carbon storage research as its most significant global contribution to the CCS field, establishing Australia as a top-tier leader in the science of geological sequestration. This leadership is built on a foundation of characterising national resources, pioneering fundamental research into the mechanisms of dissolution and residual trapping that provide for permanent storage security, and developing new technologies for monitoring and verification. 3.2 Advancing CCS Science and Technology 12 The technical expertise developed in Australia has also been actively exported, and CSIRO’s storage science is now embedded in global practice, with learnings and methodologies being integrated into project designs and regulatory submissions in Canada, Germany, and across East Asia. Furthermore, key synthesis papers on MM&V progress authored by CSIRO researchers are now considered the "goto citation" and "benchmark paper" that international project developers and regulators use when drafting their monitoring strategies and permitting applications. This demonstrates a strong culture of two-way knowledge exchange, with CSIRO importing and adapting promising international technologies while contributing its world-leading carbon storage innovations back to the global community. Beginning with the GEODISC program, CSIRO, in partnership with Geoscience Australia, performed the foundational scientific work of characterising Australia's geological basins. This created a national "atlas" of storage potential that provided the essential knowledge base, such as injectivity thresholds, containment profiles, and regional feasibility models, for all subsequent storage projects and strategic government initiatives. CSIRO has consistently led innovation in storage monitoring techniques. Its work at the Otway International Test Centre and the WA In-Situ Laboratory is considered "trendsetting" by international peers and has produced big breakthroughs in Monitoring, Measurement, and Verification (MM&V). These MM&V innovations have had a profound and quantifiable impact on the economics of CCS. Stakeholders noted that the application of these CSIRO-developed techniques can reduce the predicted lifetime cost of storage monitoring by up to 80% compared to conventional methods. This cost reduction is a critical enabler that directly improves project NPV, helping future commercial projects overcome investment hurdles. CASE STUDY The Otway International Test Centre: A Global Benchmark in Storage Science 3.2 Advancing CCS Science and Technology 13 The Otway International Test Centre is arguably the crown jewel of Australia's CCS research effort and a testament to CSIRO's contribution as a key research partner in the CO2CRC. The project’s orderly progression, from early tests in a depleted gas field (Stage 1) to more advanced work in saline formations (Stages 2 & 3), is lauded by international peers as a model for systematically de-risking geological storage. Over its lifetime, the project has successfully injected over 100,000 tonnes of CO₂, demonstrating safe, long-term containment and serving as a unique "global facility" for developing and validating new technologies. As a key scientific partner, CSIRO's scientific and project leadership was instrumental in integrating and validating a suite of world-first monitoring techniques at Otway. This collaborative environment, allowed for key innovations to be trialled: The successful deployment of sparse seismic surveys using orbital vibrators, a more cost-effective and less invasive monitoring method, led by Curtin University. The Stage 2 residual trapping test, providing real-world data on CO₂ immobilisation, driven by CSIRO’s advanced reservoir modelling capabilities. The development of pressure tomography, using pressure as a primary tool to image plume movement, a technique pioneered by CSIRO researchers. The real-world value of this work is best exemplified by its direct influence on the Gorgon Carbon Dioxide Injection Project in Western Australia, one of the world's largest commercial CCS operations. Multiple senior industry and research stakeholders confirmed that the ability to point to the successful demonstration of safe injection and monitoring at Otway was a "powerful argument" and a key "pillar in the approval" for the Gorgon project. This provides a direct and undeniable line of sight from CSIRO's foundational research to the enablement of a multi-billion-dollar commercial decarbonisation project. The Link to Commercial Impact "To have confidence that we can monitor the CO2 in the subsurface... There are a couple of papers in particular that Charles Jenkins was an author on...For example, his paper in 2015 [The state of the art in monitoring and verification—ten years on] summed up 10 years of progress since the IPCC Special Report in 2005... And that's a benchmark paper in itself." - Tim Dixon, General Manager, IEAGHG 3.3 DE-RISKING PROJECTS AND INFORMING GOVERNMENT UNDERPINNING POLICY AND INVESTMENT WITH CREDIBILITY Over the past two decades, CSIRO has played a pivotal role in enabling CCS investment and shaping policy via its unique combination of scientific authority, institutional neutrality, and deep technical expertise. Stakeholders consistently identified the "CSIRO Badge" as a powerful enabler. 3.3 Underpinning Policy and Investment with Credibility 14 CSIRO has also served as a critical knowledge provider to Australian governments at the federal and state levels, offering scientific input on storage potential, capture feasibility, and regulatory design. Senior government officials described a positive and responsive engagement with CSIRO's technical teams, through initiatives such as the CO₂ Utilisation Roadmap, the WA CCUS Hubs study, and technical advice on the Sea Dumping Act, where CSIRO's work served as a valuable and credible input that directly informed departmental strategy. Several stakeholders noted that CSIRO’s data and technical analysis provided the evidence base for progressing policy options that might otherwise have stalled due to uncertainty or lack of credibility. This credibility has had a direct and tangible impact on project viability. Stakeholders noted that departments often "pay a premium for CSIRO’s work specifically for the credibility," as their involvement decreases doubts over scientific rigour and impartiality. Industry stakeholders also cited CSIRO’s independent analysis and endorsement as decisive factors in unlocking capital for key pilot projects. By providing trusted, thirdparty techno-economic data, CSIRO helps partners overcome commercial sensitivities and build the confidence required for Boardlevel and government investment approvals. CSIRO is recognised not only for its technical capabilities but also for its reputational value: a “credibility multiplier” that lends legitimacy to CCS projects, de-risks investment decisions, and provides an impartial evidence base for policy development. However, this influence is not without its limitations. Multiple senior stakeholders identified an "influence gap." While technical engagement at the officer-toscientist level is described as excellent, stakeholders noted limited direct contact with CSIRO on CCS at a strategic, ministerial-advisory level. Also, many stakeholders observed that CSIRO has been a "muted voice" in the broader public debate. While its non-advocacy stance is understood as a function of its institutional role, this has limited its ability to leverage its powerful brand to counter public misinformation and shape a more evidence-based national discourse on CCS. CASE STUDY The WA CCUS Hubs Study: From Science to State Strategy 3.3 Underpinning Policy and Investment with Credibility 15 The WA CCUS Hubs Study project is a clear example of CSIRO translating its technical authority into direct policy and investment impact. Commissioned by Western Australian LNG Jobs Taskforce, CSIRO partnered with the Global CCS Institute (GCCSI) to evaluate the feasibility of developing large-scale Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) hubs in Western Australia, focusing on decarbonising high-emission industries like natural gas processing, cement, and fertiliser production. CSIRO, in collaboration with the Global CCS Institute, provided the core subsurface storage identification and techno-economic analysis needed to underpin the WA Government’s strategic planning for a multi-user CCS hub. Stakeholders noted that access to CSIRO's deep technical knowledge and its trusted brand as an "authoritative source of information" was essential for the government to assess the long-term viability of shared infrastructure and validate the feasibility of hub-scale storage. The report delivered by the collaboration had direct and tangible impacts. Policy Development The study's findings projected the creation of approximately 37,000 construction jobs and 500 permanent positions, directly informing the development of the WA Government's CCS Action Plan. Investment Signal Government Investment The report acted as a crucial "investment signal" to international proponents, confirming that the state was a prospective and credible location for major private investment in carbon storage. The confidence provided by the report led directly to the WA Government announcing a $4.3 million investment to help establish a worldleading CCUS industry in the state. "The involvement of an organisation like CSIRO in advancing carbon capture and carbon storage projects in Australia has helped reduce uncertainty around domestic technology development capability. This, in turn, has increased policymakers' confidence to pursue CCS, underpinned by the credibility and research expertise of CSIRO." 3.4 A LEGACY OF INFRASTRUCTURE & EXPERTISE BUILDING NATIONAL CCS CAPABILITY One of CSIRO’s most critical and enduring impacts has been its central role in building Australia’s sovereign capability in CCS. Over 25 years, its programs have created two invaluable national assets essential for any future deployment of CCS projects under Australia’s local conditions. 3.4 Building National CCS Capability 16 A portfolio of world-class research infrastructure A highly skilled and experienced workforce CSIRO has also served as an anchor institution, enabling public and private sector to become more “CCS-literate” via hands-on learning, access to shared infrastructure, or trusted technical advice. Its contribution extends far beyond its own staff; many of engineers, geologists, and policy professionals leading CCS efforts across Australia have been trained by, worked alongside, or drawn directly on the outputs of CSIRO’s programs. The primary vehicle for this capability building has been direct, hands-on experience. CSIRO’s extensive pilot plant programs did more than just test technology; they acted as real-world training grounds. Industry partners noted that seconding their own engineers and technical staff to projects at CSIRO’s pilot plants, such as at Loy Yang, Tarong, and Vales Point, was invaluable. This experiential learning transformed them from passive buyers into "knowledgeable customers," equipping them with deep expertise in areas like corrosion control, solvent management, and modular rig logistics. Hands-on Experience: Real-World Training Grounds Cross-Sectoral Benefits: Spill-over Innovation The capability developed through CSIRO's CCS research has generated significant benefits for other critical Australian industries. For example, advanced monitoring techniques validated in collaborative projects involving CSIRO, such as the fibre-optic and seismic methods, are now being adapted by service companies for use in minerals exploration and groundwater management. Similarly, the deep understanding of Australia's geological basins, developed for storage characterisation, is a valuable asset for the broader resources industry. Through this multi-pronged approach, CSIRO has been instrumental in creating a domestic skill base that lowers risk for future hubs and anchors high-value technical work inside Australia. Foundational Assets: A Portfolio of Research Facilities CSIRO has played a key role in establishing a portfolio of critical, large-scale research infrastructure, such as field-scale sites like the Otway International Test Centre (as a key partner in the CO2CRC) and the In-Situ Laboratory in Western Australia, which serve as realworld environments for developing and de-risking storage and monitoring technologies. CSIRO was also a central partner in establishing the National Geosequestration Laboratory (NGL), which attracted $48.4 million in funding to create a national network of laboratory and field-testing infrastructure for government and industry to minimise the risk and uncertainty regarding geological storage options for CO₂. CASE STUDY From Carbon Storage to Minerals Exploration: Cross-Sector Capability Spill-over 3.4 Building National CCS Capability 17 A key, and often overlooked, impact of CSIRO’s research in CCS has been the spillover of its advanced technical capabilities into other vital Australian industries. This ripple effect, originating from a single point of research, is now creating value across the Australian economy. The best example to illustrate the impact is the suite of innovations recently trialled at the Otway International Test Centre. To solve CCS-specific monitoring challenges in a more cost-effective and less invasive way, new high-resolution methods for characterising the subsurface were developed and validated in a partnership between CSIRO, CO2CRC and Curtin University. These methods included Curtin’s sparse seismic surveys and advanced fibre-optic acoustic sensing, and CSIRO’s advanced pressure interpretation methods. These advances were built on earlier research collaborations at Otway. Commercial Application & Spill-over The impact of this work now extends well beyond CCS, with Australian service companies actively adapting these workflows for their own commercial applications: Minerals Exploration: Techniques are being used to improve the efficiency of minerals exploration. Groundwater Management: Methods are being applied to better understand and manage vital water resources. A Broader National Asset As multiple stakeholders pointed out, this work extends well beyond its initial scope; it also helps to uncover the "full resource potential of the ground beneath us." By mapping Australia’s geology for storage needs, CSIRO has produced a rich national dataset and a powerful toolkit that together sharpen the competitive edge of the wider resources sector. This case study demonstrates that the national capability built through CSIRO's CCS research is not siloed. The investment has cultivated deep expertise and innovative technologies that are now generating value and enhancing productivity in other key sectors of the Australian economy, representing a significant and enduring return on the nation's long-term investment in science. "They [CSIRO] have been engaged in hosting these young engineers and students. They have a very strong postdoc programme; they have very strong student internship programmes... I was engaged with them and their student exchange programmes, and four or five of my graduate students spent time at CSIRO in Newcastle and Melbourne working on carbon capture." - Mohammad Abu Zahra, Head of Middle East & Africa, Global CCS Institute 3.5 EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT AND OUTREACH BUILDING PUBLIC TRUST AND SOCIAL LICENCE 3.5 Building Public Trust and Social Licence 18 Public trust is a critical enabler of CCS deployment, especially where projects involve subsurface activity near communities. CSIRO has played a vital role in shaping Australia’s approach to social licence, offering sciencebased engagement practices that foster transparency and credibility. Stakeholders emphasised that CSIRO's status as a non-commercial, government science agency was the primary driver of this trust. The intellectual foundation for much of this work was provided by former CSIRO social scientist Professor Peta Ashworth, who was identified by international peers as a "world leader" in the field during her time at the organisation. Her research into social licence and public perception provided the rigorous academic framework that guided CSIRO's successful community engagement strategies for many years. This strategy has been particularly effective at the local level, with stakeholders highlighting the strong community reception at key project sites where CSIRO played a significant, though varied, role. At Otway, for example, CSIRO was a crucial scientific partner in supporting the CO2CRC-led sustained, respectful engagement with local farmers that turned potential opposition into active support. CSIRO took primary responsibility for community engagement at projects it led, such as the South West Hub and the subsequent WA In-Situ Laboratory. CSIRO’s outreach strategy was praised for its use of tangible tools that demystified complex science, such as innovative site tours and hands-on demonstrations that made subsurface processes visible and understandable. Stakeholders who have worked directly with CSIRO on community engagement for projects offered very positive feedback. They praised the organisation for “doing engagement right” - focusing on data and dialogue rather than promotion. This approach built on CSIRO's trusted, nonadvocacy brand; and has helped set a tone for CCS engagement in Australia. Many stakeholders noted a significant disconnect between this success at the local level and the broader national conversation. They widely agree that a more proactive national communication strategy is needed to counter a "derogative narrative" and rising public misinformation about CCS. While effective in host communities, CSIRO's evidence-based voice has struggled to penetrate a highly polarised national discourse, representing a strategic gap where the organisation's trusted brand could be more effectively leveraged to "win hearts and minds nationally" and build the broad social licence necessary for future large-scale deployment. CASE STUDY The CarbonNet “Tim Tam Milkshake” Outreach: Making Pore-space Storage Tangible 3.5 Building Public Trust and Social Licence 19 As part of the community engagement activities for the CarbonNet project in Victoria’s Gippsland region, CSIRO collaborated with project partners to design and deliver innovative tools for public communication. A standout example was the “Tim Tam milkshake” demonstration, a simple but powerful analogy used to explain subsurface CO₂ storage and make the concept tangible for the community. The demonstration was highly effective in its simplicity. A Tim Tam biscuit was used to represent a porous rock formation (the storage reservoir), while milk represented the supercritical CO₂ being injected. The biscuit’s outer chocolate coating symbolised the impermeable caprock layer that keeps the CO₂ trapped securely beneath the surface. By dipping the biscuit into the milk, the team could visually demonstrate how CO₂ occupies the pore spaces within the rock while remaining safely contained by the seal, mimicking how geological trapping works in real-world storage scenarios. These simple and clear demonstrations were highly effective at turning an abstract scientific process into something that local communities, students, and policymakers could see and feel. The impact of this type of evidence-based, hands-on engagement was profound, building a crucial foundation of trust and understanding. Stakeholders cited that CSIRO’s broader evidence and engagement work on CarbonNet provided government officers and investors the confidence that the project was technically viable and that its risks were manageable. This assurance was critical and is seen as having directly "kept the project on track," ensuring its continuation despite political headwinds. This provides a direct line of sight from CSIRO's community-level science communication to the sustained progress of a major national decarbonisation initiative. "In a complex and contested space like CCS, CSIRO has the depth of expertise needed to provide authoritative, objective advice on the readiness of the technology and its deployment globally." - Amanda Caples, Victoria's Lead Scientist 3.6 CSIRO’S ROLE IN THE INTERNATIONAL CCS COMMUNITY GLOBAL STANDING AND INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE 3.6 Global Standing and International Influence 20 CSIRO's international engagement has remained a consistent and powerful strength throughout its 25-year journey. Stakeholders from North America, Europe, Asia, and multinational institutions repeatedly pointed to CSIRO as a benchmark-setting organisation and a top-tier global player in CCS research. Its strong global brand and undisputed technical credibility have allowed it to build and maintain a network of impactful international partnerships, even during periods of waning domestic policy support. This influence is demonstrated through three key pillars. Pillar 1: Foundational Collaboration From the early stages, CSIRO established a precedent for a two-way knowledge exchange, adapting international technologies while exporting its own validated methods back to the global community. For example, CSIRO scientists participated in the landmark Frio Brine Pilot Experiment in Texas in 2004, a collaboration that was highly valued by US partners and helped shape the research protocols for Australia's own programs. Pillar 2: Global Policy Shaping CSIRO's standing has enabled it to exert significant influence on global climate science and policy. For example, CSIRO has provided direct technical advice to the scientific group of the London Protocol, the international treaty governing the world's oceans. This work, focusing on CO₂ stream purity and its potential impact on the marine environment, has helped shape the global conversation on transboundary regulations for CO₂ storage. Pillar 3: Forum & Network Leadership CSIRO's role as a key representative for Australia in multilateral forums has been critical for keeping Australian science at the cutting edge and ensuring a vital channel for knowledge exchange. This is best demonstrated through its generous participation in the International Test Centre Network (ITCN), and CSIRO scientists’ leadership roles on the steering committees of prestigious bodies like the IEAGHG expert networks and the GHGT conference series. This multi-faceted engagement has ensured that Australian research is represented, respected, and embedded in the evolution of CCS globally. CASE STUDY The 2019 IEAGHG Technical Report: Breaking the 90% Capture Rate Cap 3.6 Global Standing and International Influence 21 This initiative is a prime example of CSIRO leveraging its technical authority to shift the global scientific and policy conversation on CCS. In 2019, CSIRO, led by Paul Feron, authored a landmark technical study for the IEAGHG that systematically dismantled the long-held global assumption that 90% was the practical and economic limit for CO₂ capture rates. Leveraging its deep knowledge of solvent chemistry and plant integration from its extensive pilot-plant program, CSIRO conducted the core techno-economic analysis for the report, "Towards Zero Emissions CCS from Power Stations using Higher Capture Rates or Biomass". The study’s key findings were transformative: It established that the 90% capture rate was not a technical barrier but rather an "artificial limit" based on historical economics. It demonstrated through detailed modelling that achieving near-zero emissions was technically feasible and surprisingly affordable: For an ultra-supercritical coal plant, reaching 99.7% capture increased the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) by only 7% compared to the 90% baseline case. For a natural gas plant, reaching 99% capture also resulted in only a 7% LCOE increase. According to senior international stakeholders, this highly influential report provided the definitive evidence base that allowed both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to update their global mitigation pathway models. By demonstrating that the 90% capture-rate cap was outdated, CSIRO’s work was instrumental in restoring high-capture CCS as a viable long-term decarbonisation option in the world’s most critical climate and energy scenarios. This provides a clear line of sight from CSIRO's technical analysis to a direct and significant impact on the international scientific consensus. "From working directly with us then, CSIRO has been one of the world's leading research institutes on CCS. Our GHGT conference Technical Programme Committee always has 2 people on it from CSIRO out of the 11. So that says a lot. I think always at the leading edge." [GHGT is the largest global conference on CCS] - Tim Dixon, General Manager, IEAGHG 3.7 BRIDGING THE VALLEY OF DEATH NAVIGATING THE PATH TO COMMERCIALISATION 3.7 Navigating the Path to Commercialisation 22 While CSIRO has demonstrated world-class scientific and technical leadership in CCS, the translation of this research into widespread commercial deployment represents one of the most significant and complex challenges of its journey. The path from a successful pilot plant to a commercially viable, largescale operation is fraught with obstacles, often referred to as the "valley of death." This is a critical gap where promising technologies can falter due to a lack of investment, uncertain market signals, and inconsistent policy support. Stakeholders consistently identified that the primary barrier to CCS commercialisation in Australia has not been a failure of the technology itself, but the absence of a highvalue business case for industry. The high capital cost of CCS projects, combined with a volatile policy environment that has lacked a consistent carbon price or equivalent longterm incentive, has made it difficult for industry to commit to the multi-billion-dollar investments required. Without clear market signals, there has been insufficient commercial pull to draw CSIRO's innovations out of the pilot phase. However, stakeholders noted that for CCS, this ‘valley’ is not a final destination. Because the underlying driver of meeting future climate targets is persistent, the extensive foundational work performed by CSIRO and its partners is viewed as a critical national asset-in-waiting. This derisked knowledge base and proven technical capability ensure that when market and policy incentives inevitably align, Australia is positioned to rapidly build upon what has already been achieved. Within this challenging external environment, CSIRO has focused on its core mission as a national science agency: "drive long-term, foundational research that underpins innovation". In the CCS context, CSIRO’s key contributions that have enabled research translation and commercialisation include: While enabling significant progress, stakeholders also pointed to internal, institutional hurdles within CSIRO that have, at times, complicated the path to commercialisation. Several partners described the process of negotiating contracts and intellectual property agreements with CSIRO as a lengthy and rigid process that can stifle the agility required for commercial ventures. The perception of CSIRO as a high-cost service provider has sometimes led potential partners to seek alternatives, particularly when a project's success did not hinge on the premium credibility of the CSIRO brand. De-risking Technical Aspects of CCS Stakeholders noted that CSIRO has contributed to moving CCS from "just doing studies" to undertaking "real work" in industrial environments. Its extensive pilot plant programs provided crucial data and operational experience needed to build industry confidence. Strategic Collaboration & Partnership CSIRO has a strong track record of creating high-value IP from its CCS research, which serves as the foundation for commercialisation. The most prominent example is a strategic R&D collaboration with a leading overseas capture technology supplier, a partnership demonstrating a pathway for converting Australian research into global commercial impact. CASE STUDY ION Clean Energy: A Commercial and R&D Partnership Bringing Carbon Capture Technology to the Global Market 3.7 Navigating the Path to Commercialisation 23 The successful commercialisation of carbon capture technology by US-based ION Clean Energy provides a clear line of sight from CSIRO's publicly funded research to a major commercial outcome, demonstrating the world-class quality of the science. Commercial Success ION Clean Energy has successfully raised over USD $80 million in capital from investors including Carbon Direct Capital, Chevron New Energies, Williams and Denbury (now owned by ExxonMobil). CSIRO also benefits from the commercial agreements in place. Momentum for collaboration began when ION’s leadership saw performance data on a new solvent system that began at CSIRO and was presented at the 2018 GHGT conference in Melbourne. ION’s leadership believed the technology to be superior to other solutions available at the time and initiated a strategic R&D collaboration between the two organisations. Since then, CSIRO and ION have partnered to continue developing the technology to prepare for the global commercial market. The impact of this partnership has been substantial: Global Ambition ION Clean Energy is now deploying its capture technology globally and has a stated ambition to capture one billion tonnes of CO₂ by 2050 through the continuation of its commercial efforts and R&D collaboration with CSIRO. However, the story also underscores the key challenge of the "valley of death" in Australian innovation. Stakeholders noted that for the technology to be successfully scaled, commercialisation usually occurs overseas, where the investment landscape is more conducive to high-risk technology development. While a validation of success, this example underlines the critical need for stronger domestic pathways to ensure Australia retains its world-class scientific talent and can translate this expertise into locally based commercial enterprises that can anchor a new industry at home. "The biggest contribution is the work that they did of getting the research out of the lab into a demo with an eye on commercial needs... over the last 15 years, the technology is much better and it's ready to be deployed now because of what they did." - Frank Morton, former Director of Technology Development of the US National Carbon Capture Center APPENDICES Appendix 1: Stakeholder Interview List 24 APPENDIX 1: STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEW LIST Additional stakeholders not listed in the table above were interviewed to inform the impact assessment, and we acknowledge their contributions while respecting their decision not to be named in this report. APPENDICES Appendix 2: Program Logic Diagram 25 APPENDIX 2: PROGRAM LOGIC DIAGRAM APPENDICES Appendix 2: Program Logic Diagram 26 APPENDIX 2: PROGRAM LOGIC DIAGRAM