We developed a range of disruptive scenarios for a leading Australian oil and gas company, and identified opportunity 'signposts' to indicate the likelihood of a given scenario to inform their technology planning process.

The challenge

Disruption ahead

Australia's energy sector is undergoing disruptive change driven by geopolitical, economic, environmental and technological trends. This is particularly true for oil and gas companies within the energy industry. A large Australian oil and gas company identified the need to develop a more systematic approach to assessing these disruptive trends and identifying opportunities amidst the change. However, by its very nature predicting and planning for disruption is complex and difficult to achieve.

Our response

Scenario planning

Drawing on CSIRO’s deep research and energy modelling capabilities, we worked with the company to develop a set of disruptive scenarios that explore futures trends that could impact their business. This included the exploration of opportunities, risks and areas of technology investment under each scenario, as well analysis of key scenario and opportunity signposts to support the company’s technology planning process.

The results

New business opportunities

In addition to providing a framework for assessing disruptive technological change, the project resulted in the identification of multiple new business opportunities that would provide competitive advantage today and into the future. A key part of success was due to the highly collaborative approach that was adopted. Using an embedded on-site project team, the scenarios combined the company’s industry and technical knowledge with insights from a broad range of CSIRO researchers – within and outside of the energy sector.

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