Case study
Information about Australia's past, current and future climate helps industries, governments and communities plan for and adapt to a variable and changing climate.
Changes to the climate system have occurred and are likely to continue
The international scientific community accepts that increases in greenhouse gases due to human activity have been the dominant cause of observed global warming since the mid-20th century. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
Australia's changing climate represents a significant challenge to individuals, communities, governments, businesses, industry and the environment. Australia has already experienced increases in average temperatures over the past 60 years, with more frequent hot weather, fewer cold days, shifting rainfall patterns and rising sea levels. More of the same is expected in the future.
The most comprehensive climate projections for Australia
We worked with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce the most comprehensive set of climate change projections for Australia ever released.
Map of the eight regions or 'clusters' for which climate change information has been assessed
The projections are presented for eight distinct regions of Australia, each of which will be affected differently by climate change.
The projections are based on data from up to 40 global climate models, developed by institutions around the world, that were driven by four greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios. Results have been prepared for 21 climate variables (both on the land and in the ocean) and for four 20-year time periods (centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090).
Our scientists use results from climate models that are based on established laws of physics. Confidence ratings for the projections are based on five lines of evidence:
The projections draw on the full breadth of available data and peer-reviewed literature to provide a robust assessment of the potential future climate.
Observed changes will continue into the future
Research has shown that most of the changes observed over recent decades will continue into the future. Projections suggest that for Australia:
Time series for Australian average temperature for 1910-2090 as simulated in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), relative to the 1950-2005 mean. The central line is the median value, and the shading is the 10th and 90th percentile range of 20-year running means (inner) and single year values (outer).
The grey shading indicates the period of historical simulation while three future scenarios are shown with colour coded shading. RCP8.5 (Purple, high emissions), RCP4.5 (Blue, intermediate emissions) and RCP2.6 (green, low emissions). ACORN-SAT observations are shown in brown and a series from a typical global climate model is shown into the future in light purple.
Temperature projections for Australia from three different greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios.
Show text descriptionSeasonal-average rainfall changes will vary across Australia.
The time in drought is projected to increase over southern Australia (high confidence).
There is high confidence in increasing potential evapotranspiration (atmospheric moisture demand).
There is high confidence in decreasing soil moisture from mid-century in the southern regions (particularly in winter and spring) driven by the projected decrease in rainfall and higher evaporative demand. There is medium confidence in decreasing soil moisture elsewhere in Australia where evaporative demand is projected to increase but the direction of rainfall change in uncertain.
Southern and eastern Australia are projected to experience harsher fire weather (high confidence).
Tropical cyclones may occur less often, but become more intense (medium confidence).
Projected changes will be superimposed on significant natural climate variability.
The Climate Change in Australia website provides easy access to the projections information and data.
The website houses 14 interactive tools for exploring data; a data download facility; a technical report describing the data sources, methods, observed changes and projections; reports and brochures that summarise the results for eight regions of Australia; a brochure on Data Delivery; a brochure on projections for selected cities; a Climate Campus for learning more about climate science and using projections in impact assessments; an online training course; and other resources for decision makers and communicators.