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The challenge

Climate change projections to meet current needs

The current suite of climate change projections for the Pacific are widely used across the region to inform policy, planning, decision making and education.

Developed in 2015 through the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science Program, the regionally specific projections for fourteen Pacific Island countries are based on the global climate model simulations that informed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.

However, these projections do not consider Paris Agreement targets which form the basis of current climate policy development. There have also been advances in climate modelling which are not reflected in the current suite of Pacific climate change projections.

Our response

Updated projections for Pacific stakeholders

We're developing the next generation of climate change projections for the Pacific that will enhance the capacity of Pacific nations to adapt to the challenges of a changing climate.

We're developing updated climate change projections for the Pacific. These are based on the modelling that will inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report due for release in 2021. This modelling incorporates the latest climate change science and provides the most comprehensive suite of climate change projections available.

The new projections will feature projected changes at Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C and 2°C warming since preindustrial times and will be accompanied by real-world examples of their use. These examples are being developed through case studies across the Pacific.

The results

The best available science to inform Pacific planning and adaptation

The updated projections will provide Pacific nations with more accessible, policy-relevant climate change information than is currently available. It will also provide capacity building tools to help with the application of this information.

National meteorological services and their sector-based stakeholders will be able to readily use these projections to inform climate change impact assessments to guide the range of policy, planning and education activities that are necessary to respond to build resilient communities and countries in the face of a changing climate.

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