Opportunities for Growth

Driving forces creating economic opportunities for Queensland companies over the coming decade

Claire Naughtin, John McLaughlin and Stefan Hajkowicz

December 2017

 

Principal Sponsor

The QFI particularly acknowledges the generous support for the development of the report provided by The Star Entertainment Group as Principal Sponsor.

Citation

Naughtin, C, McLaughlin, J, Hajkowicz, S. Opportunities for growth: Driving forces creating economic opportunities for Queensland companies over the coming decade. Brisbane, Australia: CSIRO; 2017.

Copyright

© Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and Queensland Futures Institute 2017. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO.

Acknowledgements

The project team would like to acknowledge the many individuals and organisations who kindly shared their time, resources and knowledge for the purposes of this work. The project team would particularly like to thank the industry leaders who participated in interviews and workshops as part of the research.

Important disclaimer

CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it.

Queensland Futures Institute Partners

The QFI would also like to acknowledge the support of its Partners.

 

Foreword

The release of the ‘Opportunities for Growth’ report is a major milestone for the Queensland Futures Institute (QFI). It is the result of a significant investment by its partners and indicative of the strong belief that they have in a positive future for Queensland.

Moreover, and importantly, ‘Opportunities for Growth’ has been developed using evidence-based research, undertaken by CSIRO’s Data61 – Australia’s leading, independent research provider. The report’s findings are based upon and backed by current data, trends and information.

This approach, along with engagement with a number of Queensland’s academic, business, community, industry and research organisation leaders, provides many findings that are representative of issues common to a broad cross-section of the Queensland community. We believe that the robustness of the approach will see the findings more readily implemented.

The release of the report is the start of what we expect will be an ongoing discussion and the start of a range of subsequent initiatives further exploring growth opportunities. The evidence-based findings in the report will generate a variety of views, some supportive, some questioning, some opposed. It is this ‘contention of policy ideas’ that is sometimes lacking in Queensland’s policy process and something that the QFI has strived to stimulate.

The Next Steps outlined in the report foreshadow a clear path forward. Queensland’s growth will occur through clear prioritisation, coordination and the creation of a new independent, apolitical process to drive ongoing research, policy support and community engagement.

We commend the report to you and invite your participation in taking advantage of Queensland’s Future Opportunities for Growth.

CEO, Steve Greenwood
President, Julieanne Alroe

About the Queensland Futures Institute

Established in 2014, the Queensland Futures Institute (QFI) is a unique partnership of academic, business, community, industry and research organisations that seek faster economic and social growth for Queensland. We seek to work alongside government and the community to create an innovative, robust and thriving economy to enhance the social well-being and quality of life of all Queenslanders.

 

QUEENSLAND’S NEW ECONOMY

OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH

1. An increasingly differentiated investment package
Queensland’s liveability, affordability and good conditions for doing business make it competitive on price and quality.

2. A growing natural advantage
Queensland’s strengths in resources and energy sectors place it in a strong position to become the energy hub of Australia and meet rising global demand for resources.

3. An ‘advanced’ advanced services sector economy
Queensland can further diversify its economy by growing its services industries, transforming existing industries and creating new ones.

4. Queensland’s got what future Asia wants
Queensland is close to Asia and can meet its emerging consumer demands, but it is also competing globally for this market.

5. Using digital technologies to transform old into new
Queensland has grown and diversified some industries, but existing digital skill and infrastructure gaps hinder future growth and innovation.

STRATEGIC FOUNDATIONS – ENABLING QUEENSLAND TO GROW

 

Executive Summary

Queensland is in a strong position for growth. It is a great place to live, work and holiday, with its natural beauty, beaches, climate and attractive lifestyle qualities. And thanks to well-established industries in agriculture, resources, tourism and construction, Queensland has built a strong economy for current and future generations to enjoy. But Queensland, like many other economies, is operating in an ever-changing world impacted by factors such as technology, globalisation and changing business environments. To navigate these changes, it will be important for Queensland to position itself effectively
for growth.

Informed by consultations with industry leaders across the private, not-for-profit and research sectors, this report explores the driving forces that are shaping Queensland’s economy. It examines opportunities to leverage the state’s competitive advantages, diversify traditional industries, and create new sectors that meet emerging global demand, while also flagging the potential for missed opportunities. Its findings aim to provide a narrative for Queensland’s new economy and inform future strategic, business and policy decisions.

Opportunities for growth

An ‘Opportunity for Growth’ is an overarching trajectory of change that is likely to impact supply and/or demand in a market, thereby creating opportunities to sell products and services to new consumer segments and/or to reach new markets through lower production costs or more efficient value chains. This report identifies five Opportunities for Growth for Queensland:

1. An increasingly differentiated investment package. Queensland’s natural beauty, diversity and cost of living have made it a go-to destination for people not only to holiday but to live and work, raise a family or retire. Its current competitive advantages over other destinations – in Australia and beyond – are likely to grow, presenting opportunities to:

2. A growing natural advantage. Queensland is a resource-rich state with strong mining and renewable energy sectors and commodity export markets. There are great opportunities for Queensland to become the energy hub of Australia and the Asia Pacific, supplying in-demand resources and developing sustainable, low-carbon solutions for economies facing similar challenges:

3. An ‘advanced’ advanced services sector economy. Queensland is refocusing its exports from commodities to advanced services, with recent growth in areas such as life sciences, health care and social assistance and mining equipment, technology and services (METS). This presents opportunities for Queensland to:

4. Queensland’s got what future Asia wants. Queensland is in a good position to meet emerging consumer demands from Asia’s expanding middle class, given its geographical location and capacity in areas such as tourism, health, education and food. While these global markets are becoming increasingly competitive, they present opportunities for Queensland to:

5. Using digital technologies to transform old into new. Queensland has demonstrated its ability to embrace digital technology and draw on its existing expertise to harness new markets and develop new products and services. Queensland will need to address connectivity gaps and build digital capabilities to capitalise on opportunities to:

Strategic foundations

How do Queensland companies harness these opportunities and mitigate the risks?

Defining a shared narrative for Queensland’s future economy. Queensland needs a clear and powerful narrative that reflects its strengths and positions the state for new and emerging growth opportunities. A vision is important for communicating Queensland’s future direction externally, to the rest of Australia and the world, and also internally within the state. It will be important
for Queensland to:

Playing to Queensland’s strengths. Queensland’s strong traditional industries can be leveraged to diversify its economy and reduce economic reliance on a small selection of sectors. Transforming well-established industries can present new economic opportunities, particularly for regional areas which house much of the knowledge and experience in these industries. This could be enabled by:

Equipping Queensland with skills for the future. Access to talent with high quality skills is a prerequisite for growing Queensland’s workforce and economy. To advance its knowledge-intensive industries, Queensland will need to get the skills balance right and provide appropriate education and training structures that help workers adapt to changing workforce requirements.
This could be enabled by:

Managing environmental and social barriers to growth. Queensland’s rich supply of resources and strengths in the resources and energy sectors point towards a key role for the state in supplying Australia and the Asia Pacific with energy, research and expertise. For this to happen, key environmental and social barriers to growth need to be managed. This could be enabled by:

Supporting inclusive growth in Queensland’s regions. Queensland’s regional economies are at greater risk of disruption if they rely heavily on a single industry for growth. While the experience and expertise housed in these communities places them well for Queensland’s future growth opportunities, they may struggle to
diversify into unfamiliar areas. Regional communities could benefit from:

Next steps

While the opportunities identified in this report are there for the taking, harnessing them will require deliberate action and a shift away from business as usual. This will involve:

 

1 Opportunities for Growth

An ‘Opportunity for Growth’ is an overarching trajectory that reflects a cluster of smaller trends. Individually these trends might be specific to a particular issue, industry or point in time, but they are interrelated in ways that are likely to impact future supply and/or demand in a market. A shift in demand creates an opportunity to sell new products and services to new consumer segments. A shift in supply creates an opportunity to reach new markets through lower production costs or more efficient value chains. This report identifies five Opportunities for Growth that are set to shape Queensland’s economy over the next 10 years.

An increasingly differentiated investment package

Queensland’s reputation as a liveable state is arguably one of its key assets, putting it in a strong position to attract people and grow its population. Its natural wonders and beaches, good climate, diversity and affordable housing prices have made it a go-to destination for people not only to holiday but to live, whether for work, retirement or raising a family. A similar competitive edge exists for doing business in Queensland, relative to other capital cities in Australia. Aviation infrastructure developments in the pipeline look set to further strengthen Queensland’s appeal for tourism and business, and could position Brisbane as the new gateway to Australia. The existing differentials in price and quality between destinations in Queensland and those elsewhere in Australia and the world are likely to widen.

This Opportunity for Growth is characterised by the following trends:

Figure 1. Net interstate migrations in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
Data source. Australian Bureau of Statistics15

A growing natural advantage

In an increasingly resource-constrained world, Queensland is in a strong position to meet global demand for natural resources. Continued demand for steel and rising energy consumption in parts of the Asia Pacific look set to sustain demand for Queensland’s high-quality thermal and metallurgical coal in the medium-term. However, like many parts of the world, Queensland faces significant environmental challenges – notably the rate of waste production and extreme weather events. These challenges create opportunities for Queensland to develop more sustainable, low-carbon solutions, and export its knowledge and products to other economies. There is potential for Queensland to position itself as the energy hub of Australia, with opportunities to grow its resources and energy sectors through diversification.

This Opportunity for Growth is characterised by the following trends:

Rising regional demands for Queensland’s high-quality thermal coal and metallurgical coal. A global divide has emerged for coal consumption, with declines in Europe and North America and increases in developing countries in the Asia Pacific.25 While there is a great deal of uncertainty around future coal demand, demand for high-quality thermal and metallurgical coal from India, Japan and South Korea looks to continue at least in the medium-term (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Import demand for thermal and metallurgical coal across Asia Pacific regions
Data source. Office of the Chief Economist3

An ‘advanced’ advanced services sector economy

With the downturn of the resources boom, Queensland is transitioning from a focus on exporting commodities to exporting advanced services, capitalising on new growth and job creation opportunities in knowledge-intensive and services industries. Professional services have been a key driver of growth in the state’s services sector, and in the rising number of technology startups in the state. Driven in part by its decentralised population, Queensland has the greatest proportion of startups and knowledge-intensive outputs outside of its capital city in Australia. If Queensland is to continue to grow its knowledge-intensive industries, it will need to ensure its education system keeps pace with evolving skill requirements and provides sufficient access to talent.

This Opportunity for Growth is characterised by the following trends:

Figure 3. Change in employment across the top eight employing service industries in Queensland, indexed to 1984 values
Data source: Australian Bureau of Statistics42

Queensland’s got what future Asia wants

The Asia Pacific region continues to grow its share of the global economy, with more of its population moving from low- to middle-income brackets. The growth in Asian economies presents significant opportunities for Queensland to expand its market and meet emerging consumer demands in areas such as tourism, minerals, health, education and food. Queensland has existing capacity and a competitive advantage from its close proximity to Asian population centres, but it faces competition from other countries which are investing significantly in growth areas such as tourism and international education. If Queensland is to remain a dominant player in these markets, it will need to be competitive on cost or quality of products and services.

This Opportunity for Growth is characterised by the following trends:

Figure 4. Number of higher education enrolments across Australia and within Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
Data source. Department of Education and Training39

Using digital technologies to transform old into new

Queensland has embraced digital technologies to its benefit in several areas, including the AgTech sector: digital technologies have transformed traditional agriculture industry practices, making processes more efficient and improving their environmental impact. On broadband network coverage and speed, however, Australia fares poorly compared to other countries in the Asia Pacific. Queensland’s regions tend to be especially disadvantaged, a problem exacerbated by poor digital literacy. This is a particular challenge for small businesses which need to embrace digital technologies to compete with larger players. Task automation will likely affect Queensland’s future workforce in all industries, though there is much uncertainty about how and to what extent.

This Opportunity for Growth is characterised by the following trends:

Figure 5. Total value of new investments across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics69

 

2 Strategic Foundations

The Opportunities for Growth point to many plausible future directions for Queensland, identifying areas of competitive advantage which could provide new sources of economic growth, encourage investment and generate jobs. But how do Queensland companies harness these opportunities and mitigate the risks? Informed by consultations with industry leaders, this section explores the strategic foundations that will enable Queensland to capitalise on these future growth opportunities, and how industry can drive change.

Defining a shared narrative for Queensland’s future economy

Queensland has been marketed in a range of different ways over the years, but these campaigns have not provided a long-term vision. Taking advantage of the new and emerging growth opportunities presented in this report depends on creating a clear and powerful narrative that reflects Queensland’s strengths and communicates its future direction both within the state and externally, to the rest of Australia and the world.

Future directions for growth

Attracting talent and business. Queensland does not have a strong base of large businesses, with its companies making up only 6 percent of the ASX’s $1.7 trillion total market capitalisation.70 However, Queensland offers multiple incentives for companies to base their headquarters in South East Queensland or other major regional centres. Emphasising these in Queensland’s narrative could help the state to attract businesses and talent in industries it is looking to grow. This, in turn, could also entice more international students to study in Queensland – an area where enrolments have stagnated in recent years.

Queensland could further improve its ability to attract talent and business by:

Addressing traffic bottlenecks. Attracting more people to Queensland comes with the risk of increasing strain on existing infrastructure. Some industry leaders identified transportation as a current limitation on Queensland’s ability to grow its economy: the total social cost of congestion in Brisbane is predicted to rise from $1.3 billion in 2006 to $3.0 billion by 2020.11 Tackling traffic bottlenecks will be a key part of incentivising people to relocate to Queensland to live and work.

Playing to Queensland’s strengths

Queensland’s economic strengths – notably resources, tourism, agriculture, construction, and education and training – have provided a strong foundation for its economy. However, many of these industries depend not only on population growth and the environment but also on global export markets, making them susceptible to ‘boom and bust’ patterns. Diversifying existing industries and creating new ones can help spread economic activity and reduce reliance on any one industry for growth. Transforming well-established industries can present new economic opportunities, particularly for regional areas which house much of the knowledge and experience in these industries. Queensland has been successful in building the knowledge-intensive components of mining (METS) and agriculture (AgTech), but can further leverage its strengths here.

Future directions for growth

Technological innovation. Technological innovation can transform existing industries. For example, Sydney is now home to 59 percent of Australia’s financial and technology services companies.73 Key drivers of Sydney’s success included its access to talent, government and regulatory support, a robust financial services industry and technology startup network, availability of funding for startups, and strong industry leadership for a FinTech hub.74

Similar strengths exist in Queensland’s agriculture (AgTech) and mining sectors (METS), as highlighted in Chapter 1 (using digital technologies to transform old into new). However, to realise the potential of technology to transform its existing industries, Queensland will need to develop a global brand for these industries and address issues around access to workers with the right skills mix.59,8 Strong industry leadership could help provide a clear vision and assist in attracting talent and investment to Queensland.

Using tourism to diversify. Like digital technology, tourism has the potential to transform Queensland’s existing industries. Two possible examples include:

Energy costs. Cheap electricity used to be a key value proposition for Queensland, but this competitive advantage is diminishing. While rising energy costs affect all industries to some extent, they have a greater impact on energy-intensive industries such as agriculture and horticulture.79 The ability of these industries to grasp future growth opportunities and remain competitive in global markets will depend upon how well they can manage operating costs.

Equipping Queensland with skills for the future

Access to talent with high quality skills is a key barrier to innovation for Australian businesses.80 Addressing this barrier relies in part on aligning the skills people gain from education and training providers with those being demanded by employers. If Queensland is to continue to advance its knowledge-intensive and services industries, it will need to get the skills balance right and provide education and training structures that allow workers to adapt their skills to changing workforce requirements.

Future directions for growth

More flexible education models. Industry leaders felt current education models were poorly focused on relevant skills development or were out of sync with business cycles. There is a need for more agile education models, offering ‘micro-credentials’ through which individuals can upskill in specific clusters of skills required for their work. The vocational education and training sector could fill this need, presenting an opportunity to boost its enrolment levels, which are currently stagnant in Queensland and other states.81

Transition pathways for workers. It will be critical that Queensland supports people in transferring their skills to meet employment needs being created by new and growing industries. The need for employment options that assist disadvantaged or low-skilled communities, in particular, could become increasingly important with the introduction of the Australian Government’s National Disability Insurance Scheme. The not-for-profit sector already plays a key role in providing employment opportunities for disadvantaged or low-skilled members
of the community through community recycling enterprises,82 and this could increase in the future.

Managing environmental and social barriers to growth

A growing natural advantage illustrated the strengths of Queensland’s resources and energy sectors and the opportunities that can come from addressing the state’s key environmental challenges. These challenges are not unique to Queensland – many other states and countries are grappling with them, too. To leverage these new growth opportunities, Queensland needs to get the fundamentals right by developing a long-term strategy for the energy sector, managing its international environmental commitments and securing community support for industry developments.

Future directions for growth

A long-term energy strategy that aligns with environmental commitments. If Queensland is to become the energy hub of Australia and the Asia Pacific, it will require a long-term, evidence-based strategy for the resources and energy sectors. At present, industry leaders feel these sectors’ strategic direction is disjointed, which can limit new developments, long-term industry planning and the ability to attract foreign investment. A long-term energy strategy will need to take into account Australia’s international commitments to reduce its national emissions by 26-28 percent of 2005 levels by 2030.83

Growing the energy mix. Queensland’s got what future Asia wants envisaged promising medium-term demand for Queensland’s high-quality thermal and metallurgical coal in Japan, India and South Korea. There is great uncertainty around future thermal coal demands, however, particularly from developed countries. This emphasises the importance for Queensland to continue to diversify its energy mix, grow its renewable energy sector and assist workers in translating their skills to low-carbon jobs.

Preserving social license to operate. The success of Queensland’s resources and energy sectors will depend on public sentiment. Queensland’s resources industry is more than just thermal coal and coal seam gas: it also has a strong base in metallurgical coal and minerals, which both have promising future growth prospects. Raising public awareness of the range of ways in which the resources sector contributes to the economy, as well as having a long-term energy strategy, could help improve the sector’s social license to operate.

Supporting inclusive growth in Queensland’s regions

While focusing on a single industry has put regional economies at risk of ‘boom and bust’ patterns, it has also allowed many regions to develop strong expertise and experience in traditional industries – many of which feature in future growth opportunities for Queensland. It can be a challenge for regions to diversify their economies, however, and pursue new and unfamiliar growth opportunities.

Future directions for growth

Connectivity, both physical and digital. Using drivers such as technology and tourism to diversify Queensland’s existing industries relies on good digital infrastructure. Efforts are already being made to improve digital connectivity in regional Queensland through the provision of what will be Australia’s largest public Wi-Fi network.84 This initiative, driven by six local government areas in Central Western Queensland, aims to enable businesses and tourism operators to better understand their visitor markets and anticipate future demand, and enable visitors to find tourist attractions and share their experiences online.85

Physical connectivity is equally important. Lack of streamlined infrastructure between road, rail and ports is a significant pain point for many industries that rely on efficient logistics, limiting their ability to diversify and access new markets. Some industry leaders feel that common industry benefits could come from investment in infrastructure such as cruise ship terminals and airports, but these might not be well communicated. Support for future developments could be gained by clear messaging about how people and businesses across sectors stand to benefit.

Improve digital inclusion. Using digital technologies to transform old into new pointed to digital ability as a key barrier for people in regional areas and small businesses adopting digital technologies. In response to these challenges, the Australian Digital Inclusion Alliance was established in 2017 to raise awareness and drive collective action around issues of digital inclusion including digital access, affordability and abilities.86 There could be a role for private and not-for-profit organisations in driving a similar initiative in Queensland.

Tertiary education in regional areas. The location of tertiary education can impact the prosperity of regional communities. Students who study in regional areas are more likely to remain (65.7 percent) than move to an urban area (34.3 percent), demonstrating the importance of higher education options for ensuring the economic sustainability of these communities.12

 

3 Next Steps

A multitude of factors shape plausible future trajectories for Queensland, from its ageing population to the burgeoning consumer markets of the Asia Pacific. All trends point to a period of transformation for Queensland and its economy: over the coming decade, it will become increasingly important to adapt to change and identify new ways to grow and diversify Queensland’s industries and employment options. While opportunities are there for the taking, there is the need to shift away from business as usual and take deliberate action to ensure that Queensland is able to harness its new options to grow its economy. Queensland needs to:

The Queensland economy of 2027 will likely look different from today – and it is in a strong position for future growth. This report shows the intersections between different industry sector needs in Queensland and the opportunities for Queensland to harness its existing expertise and strengths to diversify its industries and make the economy more resilient. With new markets come new competitors and other challenges, emphasising the need to take calculated risks and investments. With a clear vision for growth, Queensland is well placed to succeed in the decades to come.

 

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