Heatwave conditions are occurring across large parts of Australia this week. The towns of Ceduna, Wudinna and Cummins in South Australia set new temperature records on Monday 26 January 2026, and Victoria recorded a new statewide maximum temperature of 48.9 °C in the north-west towns of Walpeup and Hopetoun on Tuesday 27 January 2026.
All quotes below are available for use by media. They can be attributed to Dr Annette Stellema, Research Scientist at CSIRO’s Climate Science Centre.
What do we know about warming temperatures in Australia?
Over the last week, various parts of Australia have broken records for the hottest temperatures ever recorded.
Climate change is raising temperatures around the world – at a global average rate of about 0.2°C per decade. These rising temperatures are leading to new heat records, with the rate of new high temperature records increasing in recent decades.
The global hottest year on record was 2024, and in 2025 we continued to see an increase in global warming driven by increasing greenhouse gases.
Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.5°C since national records began in 1910. The warming has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.
It’s expected that in the coming decades, Australia will experience ongoing changes to its weather and climate, with a continued increase in average temperatures, with more intense heat extremes.
Are these heat records in Australia expected?
Temperature records often set a benchmark or expectation for the most extreme heat possible at a given location. However, weather is highly variable, and global warming is changing the nature of climate extremes. Taking this into account, we need to assess how useful current temperature records are as a guide to just how hot it can get.
Our latest research shows that in central Queensland, models indicate that there’s a 90 per cent chance of breaking the current record temperature at some point in the next decade. In other words, record temperatures in that region may substantially underestimate how hot it can get.
The record temperatures in South Australia and north-west Victoria (broken this week) sat at a probability of around 20-30 per cent, and 30-40 per cent, respectively.
Why are heat records hard to predict?
If weather conditions were the same every year, we would see small increases in record temperatures everywhere, every year, as the baseline temperature rises.
We don't see records set every year in all locations; they occur in isolated locations, and it can often be many years between new records. That's because weather conditions impact temperature, on top of the warming baseline. Sometimes the weather conditions set up perfectly to give extreme hot conditions at a particular location.
The slowly rising baseline temperature can eventually get close enough to previous records, so that even less than optimal weather conditions will be sufficient to set new records. How long that takes depends on just how extreme the previous record was.
How can we better understand extreme heat records and prepare?
Very extreme temperatures can be produced by a 'perfect storm' of atmospheric and environmental conditions which can include air descending in slow-moving high-pressure systems, winds driving an accumulation of hot air, and dry soils.
We conducted research to determine the kinds of extreme heat events we should expect in the near-future, and how they compare to what we've experienced.
Weather station records only go back 100 years or less in most places around Australia, so we analysed many thousands of model simulations of the last few decades to gain a large sample of possible weather variations.
We could then compare the existing record at a location with the same location in the model, to see how often days of extreme heat occur when we have a much larger sample of days, taking into account the warming trend and whether they had a high probability of being broken sometime the next decade.
Overall, our Australian research suggests that Australia and communities should prepare for an increase in high temperatures. Proactively identifying locations at high risk of experiencing unprecedented weather can assist with disaster preparedness.
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