The challenge
A climate change vulnerability and adaptation project
Globally, wetlands are vulnerable to climate change. Shifts in rainfall, temperature, sea levels and extreme weather events impact ecological function and composition. There is uncertainty associated with potential climate futures and resulting environmental responses.
Ramsar Wetlands are internationally recognised ecosystems that play a vital role in sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem processes. They support rare and endangered species, including migratory birds. They also provide critical ecosystem services such as water purification, flood control and supporting broader environmental health.
Across Ramsar-listed wetlands in the Murray-Darling Basin, the impacts of climate change are likely to be amplified by existing modifications to site hydrology and ecological condition through river regulation, pest species and other pressures. These interacting pressures make anticipating climate change impacts on individual wetlands - and at the system scale - particularly complex.
The Australian Government has invested $2.5 million to improve our understanding of how climate change is likely to affect Ramsar sites in the Murray–Darling Basin. Delivered in partnership with the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), the project has developed a systematic, evidence-based climate change vulnerability assessment for the Murray-Darling Basin Ramsar wetlands. It has also co-developed adaptation pathways to navigate uncertain futures, and a transferrable approach to support Basin-scale learning and assist decision-makers.
Our response
Response to climate change: enhancing resilience at Ramsar sites
Researchers developed and implemented a site specific, values- and evidence-driven approach to deliver the project. This approach integrated local knowledge and best-available science to improve understanding of how each site functions, and how it may change into the future. Each site was also considered in the context of the larger system of connected waterways and wetlands.
The project focused on three sites: Riverland, Barmah Forest and the Macquarie Marshes Ramsar sites.
The key objectives of the project were to:
- Assess the ecological vulnerability of study sites to climate change,
- Deliver a climate change adaptation roadmap for each wetland, and
- Develop a transferrable approach for developing climate adaptation pathways.
Stakeholder engagement was a key component of this project. The project engaged with more than 160 stakeholders via three facilitated workshops at each site. These workshops deployed a co-development approach to blend scientific understanding with detailed local knowledge, observations and values.
The workshops focused on:
- Building stakeholder awareness of climate change vulnerability at each site,
- Building stakeholder capacity to address climate risks and climate adaptation issues,
- Facilitating the sharing of different knowledge and information sources, and
- Building consensus on expected climate impacts.
The results
Outcomes of the Ramsar vulnerability project for Murray-Darling Basin sites
The work combined hydro-climate projections, ecological tolerance assessments, spatial and temporal climate analogues, and extensive stakeholder engagement to examine how climate change is already affecting these wetlands, and how impacts are likely to intensify under future warming and drying.
Across all three sites, the work identified a shared trajectory toward hotter, predominantly drier and more hydrologically variable conditions, with reduced wetland inundation emerging as the dominant driver of ecological vulnerability.
A central finding is that floodplain and wetland ecosystems are more climate‑sensitive than instream systems. Even where environmental water is available, declining frequency and magnitude of high‑flow events increasingly constrain the ability to deliver overbank inundation. This places key wetland values, including flood‑dependent vegetation, waterbird breeding, fish recruitment and water quality, at disproportionate risk under climate change.
Despite these challenges, the synthesis also shows that many values are likely to persist at a system scale, even as ecological character, species composition and wetland configuration change. All three sites are expected to remain wetlands of high ecological, cultural and social value within an increasingly dry landscape, provided management adapts to changing conditions.
Adaptation pathways
Working with local managers, Traditional Owners and stakeholders, the project co‑developed climate‑ready objectives and adaptation pathways that move beyond maintaining historical conditions toward managing inevitable ecological change. These pathways identified:
- Near‑term priorities to improve the effectiveness of existing environmental water and management actions,
- Transitional actions to build enabling conditions for future adaptation, including policy, governance and knowledge needs, and
- Longer‑term transformational options, such as prioritising core wetland areas, supporting ecological transitions, and, where necessary, considering assisted species movement.
This research provides a robust, transferable framework for understanding climate vulnerability and adaptation planning across Ramsar wetlands, while reinforcing the importance of sustained engagement, flexible policy settings and forward‑looking management in the face of ongoing climate change.
The envisioned impact includes enhanced ecosystem resilience, informed management practices, and improved knowledge sharing for climate adaptation across the Basin.