An outlook for productive, resilient and sustainable landscape farming systems.
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What could productive, resilient, and sustainable farming systems look like in Australia by 2050?
This is the question the Ag2050 Scenarios Report, spanning land-based farming, forestry, aquaculture and fisheries, aims to answer through exploring the significant trends, risks and opportunities facing Australian agriculture.
With growing threats of climate change, net zero mandates, rising geopolitical uncertainty, an ageing workforce, and changing consumer preferences and market access, Australian agriculture faces significant long-term threats to farm productivity, resilience and sustainability.
To meet the challenges and fulfil the sustainability, productivity, and profitability needs of 2050, Australia will need to accelerate the transformation of its current farming systems.
Delivered through consultation and co-design with over 100 industry stakeholders, this report presents four evidence-based, plausible scenarios for what Australian farming systems could look like in 2050.
The report aims to motivate discussions between industry, researchers and policymakers, fostering strategic coordination within the Australian agriculture innovation system, to productively address cross-sectoral challenges and opportunities.
[Music plays and an image appears to show the CSIRO logo, and text appears: CSIRO, Australia’s National Science Agency]
Narrator: Aussie farmers have always been innovative but the pressures to respond to future challenges are ever increasing.
[Image changes to show someone walking through a crop, and then the images changes to another person walking through a different crop]
Narrator: What will productive, resilient and sustainable farms look like by 2050?
[Image changes to show a futuristic tractor driving through a field, and then the image changes to a person operating a drone, and then the image changes to cows grazing, and then the images changes to show sheep]
Narrator: We've created four future scenarios that reimagine Australian farming systems.
[Image changes to show a person picking leaves from a crop in a glasshouse, and then the images changes to show a robotic arm planting seedlings, and then the images changes to show a tractor harvesting a crop]
Narrator: What could Aussie farms look like as highly efficient global, industrial powerhouses for food and fibre production?
[Text appears on screen: Regional ag capitals]
[Image changes to show a hand on the steering wheel of a tractor pressing buttons on a control panel, and then images changes to show an overhead shot of a crop, and then then image changes to show someone leading on the bonnet of a car with a tablet]
Narrator: Or if we diversify into alternative land uses and industries?
[Text appears on screen: Landscape stewardship]
[Image changes to show an aerial shot of solar panels in a field, and then changes to a waterway and a pump, and then the image changes to show a plantation, and then the image changes to show a seedling and a test tube and then the image changes to show someone kneeling in a crop with a tablet]
Narrator: If we continue as we are, will farmers be able to adapt to changing climates?
[Text appears on screen: Landscape stewardship]
[image changes to show a windmill, and then the image changes to show a pipe dripping water, and then the image changes to show someone kneeling in a crop holding up a bag of grain]
Narrator: Or will farmers be left to the mercy of climate change without resilience to external shocks?
[Text appears on screen: System decline]
[The image changes to show houses in flood waters, and then the image changes to show someone looking over a dry paddock, and then the image changes to show a hand picking up dry dirt]
Narrator: Ag2050 aims to empower innovative farming systems for a productive, resilient and sustainable future for Australian farming by 2050.
[Text appears on screen: System decline]
[The image changes to show two people walking through a crop under an irrigator, and then the image changes to show an aerial shot of tractors harvesting, and then the image changes to show seedlings growing in purple UV light, and then the image changes to show solar panels in a field, and then the image changes to show someone walking through a crop with a tablet]
[Text appears on screen: research.csiro.au/ag2050]
[Logo appears on screen: Australian Government, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry]
[Music plays and the image changes to show the CSIRO logo, and text appears: CSIRO, Australia’s National Science Agency]
What do Australia’s farming systems need to look like to be productive, resilient and sustainable in 2050? Ag2050 is a disruptive multi-year program of work targeting transformational change to Australia’s farming systems.
The report presents four evidence-based future scenarios of what Australian farming systems could look like by 2050. While some may have more desirable elements than others, it's crucial to recognise that no single scenario is preferred, and each scenario entails trade-offs. The scenarios include:
Regional Ag capitals - a consolidated and technologically advanced sector, thriving and prioritising food and fibre production.
Landscape stewardship - a forward-thinking sector embracing new opportunities and novel technologies, allowing the environment to flourish.
Climate survival - a sector focused on climate adaptation and surviving through incremental changes.
System decline - a stressed sector failing to address growing challenges and reaching a tipping point.
Scenario 1 Regional Ag capitals
A consolidated and tech-savvy sector is thriving,
prioritising food and fibre security.
Increasing yields and productivity gains
Food and fibre focus through new and intensified production systems
Decreasing emission intensity and plateaued absolute emissions
Improvements to the health of ecosystem services
Skilled and diverse workforce in select growing regional cities
Step-change investment and uptake of disruptive agritech
Evidence-based and Australian-led trade frameworks
Scenario 2 Landscape stewardship
The sector embraces new opportunities and novel technologies, allowing the environment to flourish.
Increasing productivity gains and resilience
Diversified into innovative new market opportunities
Decreasing absolute emissions and increasing carbon sequestration
Active improvement to biodiversity and ecosystem services
Skilled and diverse workforce attracted to the sector
Step-change investment and uptake of disruptive agritech
Strong Australian brand for high-value goods
Scenario 3 Climate survival
A focus on climate adaptation and incremental changes allows the sector to survive.
Plateauing productivity and efficiency gains
Diversified land management practices and products
Some reduction in emissions intensities while lagging national net zero targets
Slow deterioration of biological biodiversity and ecosystem services
Some talent attraction and retention
Incremental investment and uptake of low-risk technologies
Diverse relationships to maintain an export market
Scenario 4 System decline
The system fails to address growing challenges and is at a tipping point.
Declining yields and productivity gains
Food and fibre focus with traditional intensified production systems
Lagging reduction in emission intensities and failing emissions reduction targets
Declining biodiversity and ecosystem services health
Shrinking workforce and increasing number of farmers exiting the sector
Incremental investment and uptake of low-risk technologies
Export focus to low price markets
The report presents four evidence-based future scenarios of what Australian farming systems could look like by 2050.
What next?
How Australia responds to trends and challenges will determine, in large part, its future outcomes. To meet the challenges and fulfil the sustainability, productivity, and profitability needs of 2050, Australia will need to accelerate the transformation of its current farming systems.
This report aims to motivate discussions between industry, researchers and policymakers, fostering strategic coordination within the Australian agriculture innovation system, to productively address cross-sectoral challenges and opportunities.
Ag2050 Program
The Ag2050 Scenarios Report is the first phase of CSIRO’s Ag2050 program, a disruptive multi-year initiative aimed at identifying interventions, innovations, and support necessary for a productive, resilient, and sustainable future for Australian agriculture.
The Ag2050 Scenarios Report was led by CSIRO with financial and in-kind support from the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).
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