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The challenge

Climate change information can be complex and difficult to access

We're developing the next generation of climate change projections for the Pacific that will enhance the capacity of Pacific nations to adapt to the challenges of a changing climate.

Pacific island nations are among the most vulnerable to our changing climate, with many already experiencing higher temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Further changes on top of an existing, naturally variable climate are expected long into the future because of global warming.

These changes in the climate have far-reaching consequences that will affect communities and the built and natural environment.

While there is credible scientific information available about climate change in the Pacific, applying the information to inform risk management, adaptation planning and associated decision-making for sectors including health, infrastructure, water, energy, tourism, food (fisheries, agriculture) and natural resources (forestry, biodiversity) is not straightforward.

As a result, climate change information can often be under-utilised and/or used incorrectly in decision making. In turn, this can potentially lead to inconsistent or incomplete strategic/policy settings, missed opportunity in relation to adaptation planning and investment, and otherwise ill-informed on-ground climate action.

Our response

Tailored resources for managing climate change risk

Next Generation Climate Projections for the Pacific (2019-20)

In partnership with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), we undertook a project called Next Generation Climate Projections for the Western Tropical Pacific. This project was funded by the Australian Government through the Australia-Pacific Climate Partnership.

Our guidelines were used to conduct a rapid assessment of future climate change on the cocoa industry on the Guadalcanal Plain.

The project updated model-based projections for key climate hazards for each of 14 partner Pacific Island countries, together with country/sector specific case studies, non-technical guidance materials and communication products to facilitate sectoral applications.

In the Pacific, national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) are one of the key providers of science-based climate change services on behalf of local stakeholders, including sectors and local communities.

We prepared guidelines to assist the national meteorological services to jointly undertake hazard-based climate change impact assessments with their sector-based stakeholders. The guidelines broadly outline steps for identifying, developing and applying climate change information as part of a staged impact assessment process, and provide advice and resources for undertaking each step

We also worked with various NMHSs and sectors to apply the NextGen projections as part of selected sectoral case studies in PNG (coffee and cocoa), Samoa (Cocoa), root crops (Fiji) and pearl oysters (Cook Islands). Other case studies have also been undertaken at a regional scale including macro-economic impacts of climate change in tourism sector, impacts of climate change and vector-borne disease in the health sector, and impacts of climate change and tropical cyclones.

All 'NextGen' project outputs are available on the Regional Climate Consortium for Asia and the Pacific data portal, Pacific Climate Change Portal, and Pacific Meteorological Desk & Partnership.

Access to accurate, up-to-date information about Vanuatu's climate is especially important for Vanuatu’s sectoral decision-makers. Image credit: Gina Ishmael.

Vanuatu Climate Futures Portal (2023)

Working again with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), and with the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD), we delivered comprehensive suite of resources for managing climate change risk in Vanuatu called the Vanuatu Climate Futures Portal. The Portal was delivered as part of the Climate Information Services For Resilient Development In Vanuatu (Van-KIRAP) project.

The Portal makes critical climate information readily accessible to decision-makers in government, industry and local communities.

Its tools include global and regional climate projections (at varying spatial scales) for multiple climate hazards including rainfall, temperature, sea level rise, tropical cyclones (including extreme winds), marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. This information will help inform adaptation, planning and support decision making for agricultural, infrastructure, fisheries, tourism and water industries.

The project outputs are available on the Vanuatu Climate Futures Portal.

[Music plays and an image appears of an aerial view looking down on a road leading to the coast through green vegetation]

[Image changes to show text on a blue screen: Global warming means that Vanuatu’s climate is changing… and more is on the way]

[Image changes to show Sunny Seuseu talking to the camera, and text appears: Sunny Seuseu, Secratariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme]

Sunny Seuseu: Vanuatu is in a climate emergency right now.

[Images move through to show a Vanuatu native paddling a small boat, a vegetable stall in the market, Sunny talking to the camera, and then a garden area]

Vanuatu’s temperature has increased and Vanuatu’s inter-annual rainfall has also changed dramatically over the last decade or so.

[Image changes to show a view of a storm through the front windscreen of a car, and then the image changes too show a satellite view of a cyclone, and text appears: From more intense cyclones, to hotter conditions, and erratic rainfall]

Vanuatu’s sea level has increased by 6cm since 1993 and severe events like tropical cyclones has also impacted Vanuatu.

[Music plays as images move through to show a satellite view of swirling storms over Vanuatu, and then Sunny talking to the camera]

This year where Vanuatu experienced three Category 4, Category 5 storms that has impacted the country.

[Music plays and the image changes to show green plants, and then the image changes to show text on a blue screen: Growing conditions are changing too]

[Image changes to show Vanuatu natives walking through their crops]

Pakoa Leo: Climate change is really affecting also our funding pattern of growth.

[Image changes to show Pakoa Leo talking to the camera, and text appears: Pakoa Leo, Vanuatu Department of Agriculture and Rural Development]

Adjusting temperature and rainfall patterns also is affecting the food crop production in Vanuatu.

[Music plays as images move through to show native workers squatting down to look at growing crops, a view of a newly planted patch of ground, and a medium and then very close view of a native tying up a plant]

When we are having changes in temperature also affect the growth and also development of the crop.

[Image changes to show Pakoa talking to the camera, and then the image changes to show bundles of vegetables on a market stall]

At the moment in Vanuatu, we are receiving more cyclones and extreme events like cyclones is also affecting food crop production in Vanuatu.

[Music plays as image changes to show Pakoa talking to the camera]

When the yield is not doing well there is also a shortage of food especially for surplus for sale and for home consumption. So, this is something that we might say that the food security is at risk here because of climate change.

[Music plays and the image changes to show an audience watching a presenter, and then the image changes to show a blue screen, and text appears: There’s no shortage of climate data, It’s making sense of it that matters here]

[Image changes to show Geoff Gooley talking to the camera, and then images move through to show a close view of an audience, and then the presenter talking to the audience, and text appears: Geoff Gooley, CSIRO]

Geoff Gooley: We reached out to the priority sectors, fisheries, agriculture, tourism, water and infrastructure.

[Images move through to show various views of the audience listening to the presentation, and then the image changes to show Geoff talking to the camera]

We actually undertook a co-design, co-production process for the project to make sure that the end climate information services were highly tailored and targeted to the needs of those decision makers.

[Music plays and the image changes to show a blue screen, and text appears: Vanuatu Climate Futures Portal is a tool that will help the country plan ahead and adapt]

[Images move through to show the Vanuatu Climate Futures portal, and then text appears on the right of the screen: This has changed the way we think about climate information – From design to delivery]

We’ve deliberately designed it to be scalable, so it can then be rolled out across the region.

[Music plays as image changes to show Sunny talking to the camera]

Sunny Seuseu: This climate information tool is essential and putting the user as the central focus of developing these services is key and paramount

[Image changes to show Pakoa talking to the camera]

Pakoa Leo: We are happy that we are having some sort of tools that will help us to make decisions within the Department and also at the farmers’ level to access some of the farming practices to improve our lives and also for food security purposes.

[Music plays and the image changes to show a view of the Vanuatu coastline, and text appears: https://vanclimatefutures.gov.vu]


The results

Climate-smart sectoral decision-making

The climate change science knowledge and products developed by the Next Generation Climate Projections for the Western Tropical Pacific project are a key resource for Pacific adaptation planning.

By providing national meteorological services and their sectoral stakeholders with enhanced capacity for developing sector-specific climate change information products, the project is helping to ensure that planning and adaptation decisions are informed by best available climate change science. These 'climate-smart' decisions are essential for building resilient communities, industries and countries.

The Vanuatu Climate Change Futures Portal delivered under the Climate Information Services For Resilient Development In Vanuatu (Van-KIRAP) project will be used by Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) as primary operational tool to deliver tailored national and regional climate information.

The Portal is making it easy for sectors in Vanuatu to integrate climate information into long-term sector planning, policies and design guides, and is helping to ensure sustainable investments in the region. The Portal also includes a range of case studies to highlight the impact of this work.

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