What's the state of Australia's climate?

Get the facts in this overview video.

Co-developed with the Bureau of Meteorology, this sixth, biennial report draws on the latest climate monitoring, science and projection information.

Observations, reconstructions and climate modelling paint a consistent picture of ongoing, long-term climate change interacting with underlying natural variability. Associated changes in weather and climate extremes—such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall and coastal inundation, fire weather and drought—have a large impact on the health and wellbeing of our communities and ecosystems.

They affect the lives and livelihoods of all Australians.

 [A map outline of Australia with an illustration of a parent and child standing on a hill looking over the Australian landscape.]

Our climate shapes the lives of all Australians.

[The map expands revealing more of the scene with the text reading State of the Climate 2020]

So how is our climate changing and why?
Despite some slowdown during COVID-19,

[The scene changes to a graph displaying the carbon emissions rates labelled CO2 parts per million and dating back to 800,000 years ago. Text on the left-hand side of the screen reads Global CO2 concentrations are now higher than any time in the last 2 million years]

global carbon dioxide concentrations are now higher than any time in the last 2 million years.

[The graph shifts to one side and a magnifying glass comes onto the screen magnifying the sharp increase in emissions since 1500 AD]

The enhanced greenhouse effect is a major driver of our changing climate.

[Text on screen reads The enhanced greenhouse effect is a major drive of our changing climate]

[The screen shifts to a graph showing temperature changes over time, text on the right-hand reading Australia's temperatures continue to rise with a graph illustrating an upward trend since 1900]

Australia's temperatures continue to rise, with more frequent and intense heatwaves. These trends are projected to continue.

[An illustration of a tropical forest with the text increased dangerous fire weather days comes on screen]

The number of dangerous fire weather days is increasing,

[Animated fire comes on screen]

with longer fire seasons for the east and south of the country.

[The camera pans across onto animated plains showing the grasslands burning]

Over time, long-term rainfall patterns have shifted.

[Text comes on the bottom of the screen overlaid into the animation reading the southern half of Australia is becoming drier]

The southern half of Australia is becoming drier during the cooler months,

[The grass in the animation wilts and falls away]

and combined with warming temperatures, there will be more time spent in severe drought.

[The scene shifts to an overview of the animated rainforest with rain pouring down and text reading Wet season rainfall over central and northern parts has increased]

In contrast, wet season rainfall over central and northern parts has increased.

[The scene changes to an animated ocean with arrows darting into the water]

[Text comes on screen reading our oceans are acidifying with multiple down arrows next to PH to symbolize the increased acidity of the oceans]

The oceans are absorbing some of the additional carbon emitted by humans.

As this happens they are acidifying. Ocean temperatures continue to increase,

[The animation shows us a view over a clear ocean with the text ocean temperatures continue to increase]

and marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe.

[An animation of fish swimming in the depths of the ocean with the text beside it reading Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe]

As a result of the warming oceans, sea levels are rising and the rate of increase is accelerating.

[An animated graph shows the rising sea levels since 1880 and the text above reads sea levels are rising]

Looking ahead, all these trends are projected to continue, though reducing global emissions

[An animated man and woman stand on a hillside locking across to a city in the distance]

will lead to less warming and impacts.

[The scene shrinks being the image within an outline of the map of Australia]

With better science than ever before, State of the Climate can help Australians better plan and adapt for our changing climate.
[Text on screen State of the Climate 2020 above the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology logo, bom.gov.au and to the right the CSIRO logo, csiro.au]

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Report at a glance

Australia's changing climate

Greenhouse gases

Oceans and cryosphere

Future climate

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Atmospheric carbon dioxide is rising

  • In 2019 the global average CO2 concentration reached 410 ppm.
  • Despite a decline in in global fossil fuel emissions of CO2 in 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, this will have negligible impact in terms of climate change.
  • Atmospheric CO2 continues to rise, and fossil fuel emissions will remain the principal driver of this growth.

Greenhouse gases

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 measured at Cape Grim, like other stations around the world, show a persistent and accelerating upward trend.

The rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere has increased with every passing decade since atmospheric measurements began.

Australia's climate is warming

  • Australia’s climate has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910.
  • This long-term warming trend means that most years are now warmer than almost any observed during the 20th century.
  • Australia’s warmest year on record was 2019, and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the nine warmest years.
  • The frequency of extreme heat events is increasing.

Temperature

Australia’s climate has warmed by over
1 °C since 1960.

Extreme fire weather is increasing in frequency

  • There has been an increase in the number of days with dangerous weather conditions for bushfires.
  • Climate change is contributing to changes in fire weather including by affecting temperature, relative humidity and associated changes to the fuel moisture content.
  • In the future, Australia can expect an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia.

Fire weather

The frequency of the most dangerous 10 per cent of fire weather days has increased significantly in recent decades across many regions of Australia, especially in the south and east.

Sea levels around Australia are rising

  • Global mean sea level has risen by around 25 cm since 1880. Half of this rise has occurred since 1970.
  • The rate of global mean sea level rise has increased by over 3cm per decade in recent decades.
  • Australia is expected to experience ongoing sea level rise into the future, as well as more frequent extreme sea levels.

Sea level rise

Global sea level rise is accelerating, reaching a rate of over 3­ cm per decade in recent decades.

Sea surface temperatures in the ocean are rising

  • Average sea surface temperature in the Australian region has warmed by more than 1 °C since 1900
  • Eight of the ten average warmest sea surface temperature years on record have occurred since 2010.
  • Warming of the ocean has contributed to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.
  • In the future, Australia is expected to experience more frequent, extensive, intense and longer-lasting marine heatwaves leading to increased risk of more frequent and severe bleaching events for coral reefs.

Ocean heat content

The rate at which the oceans are taking up heat has increased over recent decades.

Oceans around Australia are acidifying

  • The acidification of the oceans around Australia continues (pH is decreasing).
  • The impacts of these changes are detectable in areas such as the Great Barrier Reef.
  • The rate of decrease in pH has accelerated to over 0.02 per decade, more than five times faster than from 1900 to 1960.

Ocean acidification

The current rate of change of ocean acidification is 10 times faster than at any time in the past 300 million years.

Australia's future climate

In the coming decades Australia will experience ongoing changes to its climate. Australia is projected to see:

  • Continued increases in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.
  • Continued decrease in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, likely leading to more time in drought, yet more intense, short duration heavy rainfall events.
  • A consequential increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for
    southern and eastern Australia.
  • Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.
  • Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments, such as kelp forests, and raise the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier and Ningaloo reefs.
  • Fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion projected to be of high intensity, with large variations from year to year.
CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology

About this report

State of the Climate 2020 is a synthesis of the science informing our understanding of climate in Australia and includes new information about Australia’s climate of the past, present and future.

Australia needs to plan for and adapt to the changing nature of climate risk now and in the decades ahead. Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions will lead to less warming and fewer impacts in the future.

State of the Climate 2020 is a peer-reviewed publication. Our references are made available on our website.

References

Got questions about Australia's climate?

What will my climate look like in the year 2030?

Visit Climate Change in Australia's Regional Climate Change Explorer to find out what your local climate will look like under different emissions scenarios.

Why are Australia and the Earth warming?

We explain the enhanced greenhouse gas effect and how it relates to climate change.

What are the current carbon dioxide levels?

We publish the latest greenhouse gas (GHG) data every month delivered from the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Monitoring Station.

You can also stay informed by following #CapeGrimCO2update on Twitter.

How has Earth's climate changed in the past?

There is a great deal of evidence that Earth's climate has warmed over the past century. Learn about these observations.

Previous State of the Climate reports

State of the Climate 2018

Read the State of the Climate Report published in 2018 by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

State of the Climate 2016

Read the State of the Climate Report published in 2016 by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

State of the Climate 2014

Read the State of the Climate Report published in 2014 by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

State of the Climate 2012

Read the State of the Climate Report published in 2012 by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

State of the Climate 2020

State of the Climate draws on the latest climate research, encompassing observations, analyses and projections to describe year-to-year variability and longer-term changes in Australia’s climate.